- The Bills (12-3) are -7 point favorites vs the Patriots (8-8)
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The New England Patriots (8-8) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (12-3) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +7 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +240 |
| Bills | -7 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 |
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction for Week 18
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 18 game with 79.8% confidence.
Patriots vs Bills Spread Prediction for Week 18
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 18 with 54.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dawson Knox has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Dawson Knox has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 71.5 -110 | 71.5 -120 |
| Devin Singletary | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -110 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 21.5 -115 | 21.5 -115 |
| Gabriel Davis | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 47.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 |
| Josh Allen | 38.5 -110 | 38.5 -120 |
Patriots Best Bets for Week 18:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI)
Bills Best Bets for Week 18:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 7-8 (-1.7 Units / -9.83% ROI).
- Patriots are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -11.68% ROI
- Patriots are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
- Patriots are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.23% ROI).
- Bills are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 3.28% ROI
- Bills are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bills are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / 27.27% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .367.
The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Patriots are 6-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .573.
The Patriots are 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.
The Bills are undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .582.
The Bills are 5-3 (.625) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .317.
The Bills are undefeated (4-0) vs bottom 10 run defenses this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .531.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have turned the ball over 25 times this season — third-most in NFL. The Patriots have forced 25 turnovers this season — fourth-most in NFL.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 54.9% in the first half this season — best in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.4% in the first half this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bills have gone three and out on 33.3% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 14 — fourth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 29.4% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 14 — best in NFL.
The Patriots have run just 34.7% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 14 — second-worst in NFL. Bills have allowed their opponents to run just 38.3% of plays in their territory since Week 14 — fifth-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts since Week 14 — worst in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on just 39.4% of pass attempts since Week 14 — fourth-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 31.4% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 14 — fourth-worst in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on just 37.1% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since Week 14 — third-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 18
The Patriots have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 34% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 30% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 18
The Bills ran 11 plays in Week 17 — 2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Bills ran successful plays on 73% of plays in Week 17 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills converted first downs on 103 of 295 plays (35%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 18
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 45.8 on 3rd and long (167 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 80.8.
The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.
The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 24% of opponent drives in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 18
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
— worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 100% of rush attempts in Week 17 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.
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