Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Bills (12-3) are -7 point favorites vs the Patriots (8-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The New England Patriots (8-8) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (12-3) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Patriots+7 -11043.5 -110+240
Bills -7 -11043.5 -110-300

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 18 game with 79.8% confidence.

Patriots vs Bills Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 18 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Dawson Knox has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Dawson Knox has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Stefon Diggs 71.5 -110 71.5 -120
Devin Singletary 8.5 -120 8.5 -110
Rhamondre Stevenson 21.5 -115 21.5 -115
Gabriel Davis 48.5 -115 48.5 -115
Isaiah McKenzie 30.5 -115 30.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Devin Singletary 46.5 -110 46.5 -120
Rhamondre Stevenson 47.5 -110 47.5 -120
Josh Allen 38.5 -110 38.5 -120
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.65 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 12% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 7-8 (-1.7 Units / -9.83% ROI).

  • Patriots are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -11.68% ROI
  • Patriots are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
  • Patriots are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.23% ROI).

  • Bills are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 3.28% ROI
  • Bills are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Bills are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / 27.27% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .367.

The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Patriots are 6-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .573.

The Patriots are 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Bills are 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

The Bills are undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .582.

The Bills are 5-3 (.625) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .317.

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) vs bottom 10 run defenses this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .531.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have turned the ball over 25 times this season — third-most in NFL. The Patriots have forced 25 turnovers this season — fourth-most in NFL.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 54.9% in the first half this season — best in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.4% in the first half this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have gone three and out on 33.3% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 14 — fourth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 29.4% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 14 — best in NFL.

The Patriots have run just 34.7% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 14 — second-worst in NFL. Bills have allowed their opponents to run just 38.3% of plays in their territory since Week 14 — fifth-best in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts since Week 14 — worst in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on just 39.4% of pass attempts since Week 14 — fourth-best in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on just 31.4% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 14 — fourth-worst in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on just 37.1% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since Week 14 — third-best in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Patriots have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 34% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 30% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Bills ran 11 plays in Week 17 — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Bills ran successful plays on 73% of plays in Week 17 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills converted first downs on 103 of 295 plays (35%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 45.8 on 3rd and long (167 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 80.8.

The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 24% of opponent drives in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

— worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 100% of rush attempts in Week 17 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.