- The Patriots are -5 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS | PAR+
The New England Patriots visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos on Jan. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Denver, CO.
ThePatriots are betting favorites in this AFC Championship matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 69.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Broncos Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 56.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
- RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Patriots
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | +1200 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +700 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | +900 |
| D'Ernest Johnson (NE) | +10000 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | +1000 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Broncos vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 19.5 -118 | 19.5 -110 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 47.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 36.5 -110 | 36.5 -118 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Broncos vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham (DEN) | 15.5 -118 | 15.5 -110 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 31.5 -110 | 31.5 -118 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 34.5 -110 | 34.5 -118 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 47.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+17.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 19 games (+17.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 44% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 47% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 14-5 (+8.5 Units / 41.06% ROI).
- Patriots are 16-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.15 Units / 28.43% ROI
- Patriots are 12-7 when betting the Over for +4.3 Units / 20.57% ROI
- Patriots are 7-12 when betting the Under for -6.2 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 8-10 (-2.9 Units / -14.72% ROI).
- Broncos are 15-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 20.85% ROI
- Broncos are 8-10 when betting the Over for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Broncos are 10-8 when betting the Under for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on just 15% of plays on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 58% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 92% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 58% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 92% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on just 15% of plays on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on just 15% of plays on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 58% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 92% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on just 15% of plays on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 58% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 92% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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