Patriots vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Myles Garrett Cleveland Browns muscles
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2022, 9:18 AM
  • The Browns (2-3) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots (2-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The New England Patriots (2-3) visit FirstEnergy Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns (2-3) on Oct. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Browns are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Browns Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

Bet now on Browns vs Patriots & all NFL games with BetMGM

Patriots vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Patriots+2.5 -11043 -110+120
Browns -2.5 -11043 -110-145

Patriots vs. Browns Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Browns will win this Week 6 game with 57.0% confidence.

Patriots vs Browns Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread this Week 6 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Browns, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kareem Hunt has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Chubb has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Chester Rogers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Patriots

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Nick Chubb +400
    Rhamondre Stevenson +450
    Kareem Hunt +800
    Amari Cooper +1000
    David Njoku +1100

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Patriots

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Nick Chubb -250
    Nelson Agholor
    Rhamondre Stevenson -200
    Kareem Hunt +110
    Amari Cooper +160

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Browns vs Patriots

    Player Name Over Under
    Amari Cooper 53.5 -115 53.5 -115
    Nick Chubb 7.5 -110 7.5 -120
    Kareem Hunt 15.5 -115 15.5 -115
    David Bell 7.5 -120 7.5 -110
    Harrison Bryant 13.5 -120 13.5 -110

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Browns vs Patriots

    Player Name Over Under
    Jacoby Brissett 14.5 -115 14.5 -120
    Nick Chubb 91.5 -115 91.5 -115
    Rhamondre Stevenson 82.5 -115 82.5 -115
    Kareem Hunt 43.5 -110 43.5 -120
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 2-2 (-0.1 Units / -1.87% ROI).

    • Patriots are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -16.39% ROI
    • Patriots are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
    • Patriots are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

    Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns have gone 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

    • Browns are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -34.81% ROI
    • Browns are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
    • Browns are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

    New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

    The Patriots are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .334.

    The Patriots are undefeated (5-0) when not committing any turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .740.

    The Patriots are 1-3 (.250) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.

    The Patriots are winless (0-4) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .319.

    Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

    The Browns are winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.

    The Browns are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .676.

    The Browns are 1-6 (.143) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2021 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .330.

    The Browns are 5-9 (.357) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

    Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns

    The Browns ran 55.4% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — fifth-best in NFL. Patriots allowed their opponents to run57.1% of plays in their territory in Week 3 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

    Browns WRs have just 110.9 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 132.7 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL.

    The Browns have thrown the ball just 48.6% of the time since the 2021 season — fifth-lowest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 6.0 yards per dropback since the 2021 season — tied for third-best in NFL.

    Patriots RBs have averaged 125.8 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Browns have allowed an average of 139.6 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

    The Patriots scored on 60% of their drives last week — third-best in NFL. The Browns defense allowed scores on 54.5% of opponent drives in Week 3 — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Patriots ran successful plays on 55.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — third-best in NFL. Browns allowed successful plays on 64.3% of pass attempts on their own side of the field in Week 3 — fourth-worst in NFL.

    New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Patriots have targeted WRs 21% of the time (3 Pass Attempts/14 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

    The Patriots have targeted WRs 18% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/11 plays) in the red zone since Week 2 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

    The Patriots have started 41 drives inside their own 20 yard line since the 2021 season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

    The Patriots have thrown the ball 20% of the time (3 Pass Attempts/15 plays) on 3rd and short this season — tied for 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

    Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Browns have rushed for 10 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

    The Browns have faced a blitz just 8% of the time this season — tied for 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

    The Browns have gone three and out 5 times in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

    The Browns have gone three and out on 9% of their drives in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

    New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

    The Patriots defense did not allow scores on any opponent drives in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

    The Patriots defense has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 84 carries (9.3 Carries Per TD) in the red zone since the 2021 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

    The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

    Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 41% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    The Browns defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 38% on 3rd and short this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

    The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Browns defense sacked opponents 10 times in the red zone last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.