Patriots vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

BetMGM Betting Dec 27, 2025, 11:11 AM

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Fans arrive at MetLife Stadium before an NFL football game between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J.

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

The Patriots are -13.5 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The New England Patriots (12-3-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (3-12-0) on Dec. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Jets Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Patriots vs. Jets Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 77.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Jets Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.88 Units / 66% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Mack Hollins has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today

Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 50% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 25% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+14.55 Units / 45% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 33% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 40% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 10-5 (+4.5 Units / 27.52% ROI).

Patriots are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.15 Units / 34.81% ROI
Patriots are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
Patriots are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / ROI

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 7-8 (-1.6 Units / -9.82% ROI).

Jets are 3-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -50.49% ROI
Jets are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
Jets are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Jets have averaged just 0.8 yards per play against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.7.

The Jets are averaging 11.7 drives per TD in the 1st half this season — T-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

The Jets have run successful plays on 8% of plays against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jets have gone three and out 18 times in the 2nd quarter this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 55% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 89% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Patriots have averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt (3,959 yards/455 attempts) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.1.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. New York Jets