Patriots vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 15, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • The Patriots (7-6) are -1 point favorites vs the Raiders (5-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The New England Patriots (7-6) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) on Dec. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Las Vegas.

The Raiders are betting favorites in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Raiders Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 15

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Patriots+1.5 -11044.5 -110+100
Raiders -1.5 -11044.5 -110-120

Patriots vs. Raiders Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Raiders will win this Week 15 game with 57.0% confidence.

Patriots vs Raiders Spread Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread this Week 15 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Raiders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Davante Adams has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfrow has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.65 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.50 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 78% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have scored last in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 7-5 (+1.65 Units / 11.83% ROI).

  • Patriots are 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -8.77% ROI
  • Patriots are 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI
  • Patriots are 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders have gone 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI).

  • Raiders are 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -33.8% ROI
  • Raiders are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
  • Raiders are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Patriots are undefeated (5-0) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .673.

The Patriots are 5-2 (.714) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .566.

The Patriots are 6-3 (.667) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .518.

The Patriots are 2-6 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .456.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Raiders are winless (0-3) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .385.

The Raiders are 7-1 (.875) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .564.

The Raiders are 1-6 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — tied for 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .393.

The Raiders are 3-1 (.750) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .555.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have a third down conversion rate of just 27.7% in the fourth quarter this season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 27.1% in the 4th quarter this season — third-best in NFL.

The Raiders have a third down conversion rate of just 0.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since Week 11 — tied for worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 5.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since Week 11 — third-best in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on just 0.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since Week 11 — tied for worst in NFL. The Raiders have pressured opposing QBs on 26.8% of passing plays since Week 11 — fifth-best in NFL.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 29.2 yard line this season — best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed an average drive start position from the 28.1 yard line this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have scored just 3.4 points per Red Zone drive since Week 11 — fifth-worst in NFL. The Raiders have allowed just 3.2 points per Red Zone drive since Week 11 — second-best in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Patriots ran 111% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter in Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Patriots have converted first downs on just 47 of 210 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Patriots are averaging 9.0 drives per TD in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Raiders have started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.

The Raiders have converted first downs on just 55 of 113 plays (49%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 62% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Raiders have averaged 27.0 offensive penalty yards per game (351/13) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19.8.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Patriots defense has averaged 1.2 interceptions per game (36/30) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Raiders defense has allowed 3 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Raiders defense has intercepted 4 of 458 attempts (114.5 pass attempts per int.) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46.2.

The Raiders defense allowed first downs on 81% of pass attempts on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Raiders defense has allowed 5.0 TDs per interception (50 TDs allowed, and 10 INT) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.