- The Patriots are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New England Patriots (3-2-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (1-4-0) on Oct. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.
The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Saints Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | -3.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -190 |
| Saints | +3.5 -110 | 46 -110 | 155 |
Patriots vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 63.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 50.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Spencer Rattler has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Blake Grupe has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Brandin Cooks has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 26.5 -115 | 26.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 12.5 -120 | 12.5 -110 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 12.5 -120 | 12.5 -110 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 13.5 -110 | 13.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | 20.5 -115 | 20.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 43.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 41.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 |
| Spencer Rattler (NO) | 15.5 -115 | 15.5 -115 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games at home (+1.76 Units / 17% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 45.65% ROI
- Patriots are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Patriots are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- Saints are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -56.07% ROI
- Saints are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Saints are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Saints have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 5 of their 181 total passing attempts (3%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 10% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Saints have averaged 0.19 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.
The Saints have averaged just 4.3 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Patriots have scored on 18% of their drives (4/22) on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 79% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 5 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Patriots have averaged 0.44 epa per play on first read passes this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.24.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints
The Patriots have scored on 18% of their drives (4/22) on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 79% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 5 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Patriots have averaged 0.44 epa per play on first read passes this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.24.
The Saints have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 5 of their 181 total passing attempts (3%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 10% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Saints have averaged 0.19 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.
The Saints have averaged just 4.3 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Saints have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 5 of their 181 total passing attempts (3%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 10% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Saints have averaged 0.19 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.
The Saints have averaged just 4.3 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots have scored on 18% of their drives (4/22) on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 79% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 5 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Patriots have averaged 0.44 epa per play on first read passes this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.24.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Saints have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 5 of their 181 total passing attempts (3%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 10% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Saints have averaged 0.19 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.
The Saints have averaged just 4.3 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots have scored on 18% of their drives (4/22) on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 79% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 5 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Patriots have averaged 0.44 epa per play on first read passes this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.24.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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