Patriots vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2022, 8:39 AM
  • The Patriots (0-1) are -2 point favorites vs the Steelers (1-0)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The New England Patriots (0-1) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) on Sep. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Steelers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 2

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New England Patriots-2 -11040.5 -110-135
Pittsburgh Steelers +2 -11040.5 -110+110

Patriots vs. Steelers Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this Week 2 game with 52.0% confidence.

Patriots vs Steelers Spread Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 2 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Steelers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 34% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Hunter Henry 26.5 -115 26.5 -115
Pat Freiermuth 36.5 -115 36.5 -115
Diontae Johnson 53.5 -115 53.5 -115
Chase Claypool 42.5 -115 42.5 -115
George Pickens 29.5 -115 29.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Mitchell Trubisky 15.5 -115 15.5 -110
Rhamondre Stevenson 41.5 -115 41.5 -110
Damien Harris 52.5 -115 52.5 -115
Najee Harris 53.5 -115 53.5 -110
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone ( Units / ROI).

  • Patriots are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Patriots are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Patriots are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone ( Units / ROI).

  • Steelers are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Steelers are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Steelers are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Patriots are 2-4 (.333) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .173.

The Patriots were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Patriots were winless (0-3) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .322.

The Patriots were 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .674.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Steelers were 2-6-1 (.222) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — ninth-worst in NFL. The Patriots intercepted 23 passes last season — second-most in NFL.

The Steelers are 2-6-1 (.222) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — ninth-worst in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 23 passes since the 2021 season — second-most in NFL.

The Steelers were winless (0-4-1) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .259.

The Steelers were 2-5 (.286) when rushing less than 20 times last season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers threw for just 6.0 yards per attempt last season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed just 5.9 yards per dropback last season — second-best in NFL.

The Steelers scored on 23.4% of their drives in the first half last season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed scores on 32.2% of opponent drives in the first half last season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Steelers have thrown for just 6.0 yards per attempt since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 6.0 yards per dropback since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL.

Patriots RBs rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.4% of 409 carries last season — third-best in NFL. The Steelers allowed 10+ yards on 14.1% of carries to RBs last season — third-worst in NFL.

Patriots RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.6% of 426 carries since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 10+ yards on 13.4% of carries to RBs since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have thrown for 7,436 passing yards in 34 games (just 218.7 YPG) since the 2020 season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just 207.5 passing yards per game since the 2020 season — fourth-best in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 2

The Patriots started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Patriots started 30 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots have rushed for 9 TDs since Week 16 of the 2021 Season — most in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats for Week 2

The Steelers ran the ball on 27% of plays (39 carries/144 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers ran 22% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Steelers ran 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Steelers scored on 23% of their drives in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 2

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 40.2 on 3rd and long (141 Pass Attempts) since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 81.8.

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 42.8 on 3rd and long (80 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 81.9.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats for Week 2

The Steelers defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 24 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 26 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense forced 5 turnovers in Week 1 — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense sacked opponents 7 times in Week 1 — tied for most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.