- The Patriots are predicted to be a three-point home favorite against the Texans.
- Houston is 12-0 this season when scoring at least 20 points.
- My Patriots vs Texans prediction is the Total Under 40.5 Points (-105).
After a dominant win in Pittsburgh on MNF, the Texans travel to face the Patriots.Â
Houston used a pair of second half defensive scores to earn a 30-6 road win against the Steelers. The win gave Houston a 13th straight in which they scored at least 20 points.Â
New England produced a similarly impressive defensive showcase, winning 16-3 against the Chargers. Now, they’ll try to end Houston’s 11-game winning streak.Â
Bet on Patriots vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Patriots vs. Texans: NFL Divisional Round Odds
Patriots vs. Texans Prediction
Based on New England’s matchup advantage on defense and the offense’s lack of experience against good defenses, my Patriots vs Texans prediction is Under 40.5 Points (-110).Â
New England directly mitigates the efficiency of Houston’s past offensive performances. Â
When the run game is working, so is the Texans offense. All of Houston’s best offensive outputs by points came when the rushing attack clears 100 yards.Â
Here, Nick Caley’s unit faces a unit that has played remarkably well against the run. Save for a spell with Milton Williams sidelined, New England ranks amongst the best run-stop units.Â
Against the Chargers, New England surrendered only 87 yards on the ground. By regular-season performance, Houston trails Los Angeles by seven spots in rush offense DVOA.Â
More concerning for Houston is that Nico Collins exited Monday’s game with a concussion. On a short week, he could miss a game against a more vulnerable Patriots secondary.Â
The crux of this prediction, though, is my confidence in the Houston defense.Â
In a strength-on-strength matchup, I trust Houston’s unit more, given their competition level this season.Â
Excluding MNF, Houston ranked second in defensive DVOA, having faced the third-hardest set of opposing offenses.Â
New England has yet to face a top-five defense on the season. During the regular season, the Patriots played the easiest set of opposing defenses.Â
Accordingly, I expect some regression from the Patriots offense. Barring more Houston defensive touchdowns, I predict the game stays under the total.Â
Betting Patriots vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Texans (+3) | 42% | 31% |
| Patriots (-3) | 58% | 69% |
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