Raiders vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

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(AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:19 AM
  • The Bills are -9.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
  • Total (Over/Under): 47 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (0-1) on Sep. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Orchard Park.

The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 2 matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Raiders vs. Bills Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Raiders vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Raiders+8.5 -11047 -110+310
Bills -8.5 -11047 -110-400

Raiders vs. Bills Prediction

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 2 game with 78.0% confidence.

Raiders vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Raiders and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this Week 2 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfrow has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Davante Adams has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfrow has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Raiders

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Brandon Bolden
Josh Allen +650
Josh Jacobs +650
Tre Tucker
Stefon Diggs +650

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Raiders

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Jesper Horsted
Josh Jacobs +100
Josh Allen +110
Tre Tucker
James Cook +110

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Raiders

Player Name Over Under
Dalton Kincaid 29.5 -115 29.5 -115
Dawson Knox 25.5 -110 25.5 -120
Davante Adams 75.5 -115 75.5 -115
Stefon Diggs 77.5 -110 77.5 -120
Josh Jacobs 17.5 -110 17.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Raiders

Player Name Over Under
Josh Allen 36.5 -115 36.5 -115
Jimmy Garoppolo 5.5 -110 5.5 -120
Josh Jacobs 70.5 -110 70.5 -120
James Cook 48.5 -120 48.5 -110
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders went 1-0 (+1 Units / 95.24% ROI).

  • Raiders are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 140% ROI
  • Raiders are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Raiders are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Bills are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -100% ROI
  • Bills are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Bills are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Raiders were 1-5 (.167) when making less than 7 explosive plays in the 2022 season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .401.

The Raiders were 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2022 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.

The Raiders were winless (0-5) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .344.

The Raiders were winless (0-7) when scoring less than 22 points in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .273.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Bills were undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .577.

The Bills were 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .519.

The Bills were undefeated (4-0) vs top 10 run offenses in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .432.

The Bills are 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Raiders have averaged just 1.6 sacks per game over that time span — third-worst in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have run successful plays on 51.7% of pass attempts since the 2022 season — third-best in NFL. Raiders have allowed successful plays on 50.7% of pass attempts since the 2022 season — second-worst in NFL.

The Bills have been successful on 49.4% of plays they have run since the 2022 season — second-best in NFL. Raiders have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.3% of plays since the 2022 season — worst in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 50.5% of rush attempts since the 2022 season — second-best in NFL. Raiders have allowed successful plays on 48.1% of rush attempts since the 2022 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Raiders RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.1 yards after contact per carry since the 2022 season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

Raiders RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.3 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2022 season — second-worst in NFL.

The Raiders are averaging 5.0 yards per carry on first down since the 2022 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 5.3 yards per carry on first down since the 2022 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders went three and out 4 times in the 2nd quarter in the 2022 season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Raiders scored on 62% of their drives in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Raiders have averaged 27.1 offensive penalty yards per game (948/35) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20.2.

The Raiders had a third down conversion rate of 26% in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills committed 6 turnovers in the red zone in the 2022 season — most in NFL.

The Bills had a third down conversion rate of 31% on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 31.9 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.8.

The Bills ran successful plays on 50% of plays in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders defense has allowed 4.7 TDs per interception (56 TDs allowed, and 12 INT) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Raiders defense allowed 4.2 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Raiders defense has allowed first downs on 47% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Raiders defense has intercepted 12 of 1,229 attempts (102.4 pass attempts per int.) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.9.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense has allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (840 carries) since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Bills defense stuffed 24% (94/386) of rushing attempts in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills defense allowed an average of 4.8 yards after contact per carry (26 carries) in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.1 (1,123 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 89.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.