- Moneyline underdogs are dominating in 2022.
- One trend for first-half totals in low-total games.
- Brian Daboll is the only first-year coach covering spreads.
In failing to cover the spread in a loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 – after covering in their most recent game, a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8 – the Denver Broncos failed to record their first ATS winning streak since November 2021.
Now, as a 2.5-point home favorite (as of Thursday’s NFL odds) against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11, the Broncos are seeking to avoid a 10th ATS loss in their last 14 games.
Here are three NFL betting trends and one moneyline prediction for the matchup:
Moneyline Underdogs in Low-Total Games
It’s been a sensational season for spread and moneyline underdogs of at least seven points across the NFL, as noted in this week’s NFL betting trends. Barring shocking line movement before kickoff at 2:05 p.m. MT on Sunday, there won’t be a big underdog in Denver.
There will be, however, a dog in a low-total game; the Raiders’ moneyline is currently +120, and the game total is currently 41.5. The Broncos didn’t hit in this spot in Week 10, but it’s still worth revisiting this trend after another league-wide profitable week.
In 41 games this season in which the total was 42 or lower, the moneyline underdog is 19-22 (.463) for an ROI of +33.4%.
First-Half Unders in Low-Total Games
From 2005-18, the first-half total went under in approximately 49% of games when the game total was 42 or lower. The ROI in those nearly 1,400 spots was -5.7%.
But since 2019, the first-half total has hit in approximately 57% of games when the game total was 42 or lower. The ROI in those 158 spots is +7.9%.
The under is even better in divisional games: 38-27 (58.5%) for an ROI of +10.9%.
The Raiders-Broncos first-half total is currently 20.
First-Year Coaches in 2022
This trend is more relevant for matchups without a first-year coach on both sides, but it’s still worth noting how horrendous first-year coaches have been against the spread this season.
Brian Daboll’s New York Giants are 7-2 against the spread this season, tied with the Tennessee Titans for the best ATS record in the NFL through 10 weeks.
The other nine first-year coaches (not including interim coaches) are 33-51-2.
Nathaniel Hackett (3-6) and Josh McDaniels (3-6) are among the six coaches at least two ATS games under .500
Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction
The Raiders rushed for 164 yards on only 27 carries in a win over the Houston Texans in Week 7. They were averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry and had one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL (DVOA) through seven weeks.
Since then: 188 yards on 55 carries.
The rushing attack has suffered from a negative game script – they faced a double-digit second-quarter deficit in each of their last three losses – but it’s still been miserable. And I think that’s unlikely to change against a Broncos’ unit whose run-stopping commitment against the Titans paid off in Week 10.
That’s the biggest reason I’m taking the Broncos to earn their first home win over the Raiders since 2019.
Broncos 20, Raiders 17