Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 15, 2025, 6:47 PM

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Fans fly their Kansas City Chiefs flags outside GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium before a game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024 in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs defeated the Broncos, 16-14. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

The Chiefs are -12 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-4-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (3-3-0) on Oct. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -12 (-110).

The Raiders vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Raiders	+12 -110	45.5 -110	525
Chiefs	-12 -110	45.5 -110	-750

Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 78.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Raiders vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 61.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

Geno Smith has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Geno Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Daniel Carlson has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Tre Tucker has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 44% ROI)
Brock Bowers has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 49% ROI)
Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+6.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 47% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Raiders

Player Name	Over	Under
Noah Gray (KC)	10.5 -110	10.5 -120
Jakobi Meyers (LV)	52.5 -110	52.5 -118
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	18.5 -115	18.5 -115
Tre Tucker (LV)	39.5 -110	39.5 -118
Rashee Rice (KC)	46.5 -115	46.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Raiders

Player Name	Over	Under
Geno Smith (LV)	10.5 -110	10.5 -120
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	54.5 -118	54.5 -110
Isiah Pacheco (KC)	46.5 -115	46.5 -115
Kareem Hunt (KC)	29.5 -118	29.5 -110

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+6.55 Units / 71% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.00 Units / 24% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 10% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 17% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 2-4 (-2.5 Units / -37.31% ROI).

Raiders are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -29.45% ROI
Raiders are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
Raiders are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Chiefs are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -14% ROI
Chiefs are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
Chiefs are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged -1.16 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Chiefs have averaged 9.4 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.2.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.38 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have averaged -1.01 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.48.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 2nd half since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Raiders have converted first downs on just 7 of 22 plays (32%) on second and 1-3 yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs