Rams vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 12:05 AM
  • The Chiefs (8-2) are -14.5 point favorites vs the Rams (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Los Angeles Rams (3-7) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).

The Rams vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Rams vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Rams+15.5 -11043 -110+775
Chiefs -15.5 -11043 -110-1400

Rams vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 12 game with 77.0% confidence.

Rams vs Chiefs Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Rams will cover the spread this Week 12 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Rams and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Rams Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Rams players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Darrell Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Allen Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Van Jefferson has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Allen Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+5.80 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)

Rams Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Rams have gone 2-7 (-5.75 Units / -52.27% ROI).

  • Rams are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -30.69% ROI
  • Rams are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Rams are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 4-6 (-2.65 Units / -23.98% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 17.3% ROI
  • Chiefs are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Chiefs are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Los Angeles Rams: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Rams are winless (0-6) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .458.

The Rams are winless (0-4) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Rams are 1-9 (.100) vs top 10 defenses since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.

The Rams are winless (0-2) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Rams

The Chiefs are 4-1 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Rams have turned the ball over 15 times this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.

The Chiefs are 3-2 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .210.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .634.

The Chiefs are 7-4 (.636) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .205.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 7.9% of 189 carries this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.0% of carries to RBs this season — third-best in NFL.

Chiefs TEs have 146.3 receiving yards per game since Week 7 — best in NFL. The Rams have allowed an average of65.2 receiving yards per game to TEs since Week 7 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have rushed the ball on just 35.0% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season — fourth-lowest in NFL. The Rams have allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.

Rams RBs have averaged just 62.0 rushing yards per game this season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 101.9 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-best in NFL.

Rams WRs have 155 receptions in 10 games (15.5 per game) this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 25.5 receptions per game this season — second-worst in NFL.

Rams WRs have 155 receptions in 10 games (15.5 per game) this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 14.1 receptions per game to WRs this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Los Angeles Rams Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Rams have gone three and out 13 times in the 2nd quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Rams are averaging 17.0 drives per TD in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Rams have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Rams have gone three and out 6 times in the 2nd quarter since Week 8 — most in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 46% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 53% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 28 of 58 plays (48%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Los Angeles Rams Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Rams defense allowed successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Rams defense allowed a passer rating of just 71.5 in the red zone (79 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 96.0.

The Rams defense has pressured opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Rams have been flagged 8 times on Defense this season — fewest in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 53% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 17 TD passes in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.