Ravens vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:07 PM

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Pittsburgh Steelers fans wave their Terrible Towels during the first half of an NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Ravens are -3.5 point favorites vs the Steelers
Total (Over/Under): 41 points
Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The Baltimore Ravens (8-8-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Ravens vs. Steelers Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.

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Ravens vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 67.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Ravens players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ravens Player Prop Bets Today

Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Lamar Jackson has hit the Longest Rush Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 72% ROI)
Lamar Jackson has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Rashod Bateman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Isaiah Likely has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
Calvin Austin III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Steelers vs Ravens

Player Name	1st TD Odds
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	+1200
Derrick Henry (BAL)	+375
Keaton Mitchell (BAL)	+2200
Rasheen Ali (BAL)	+4000
Zay Flowers (BAL)	+1000

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Ravens

Player Name	Over	Under
Kenneth Gainwell (PIT)	27.5 -115	27.5 -115
Jonnu Smith (PIT)	18.5 -120	18.5 -110
Jaylen Warren (PIT)	8.5 -120	8.5 -110
Pat Freiermuth (PIT)	31.5 -118	31.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Ravens

Player Name	Over	Under
Derrick Henry (BAL)	96.5 -115	96.5 -115
Kenneth Gainwell (PIT)	30.5 -110	30.5 -118
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)	0.5 -105	0.5 -125
Jaylen Warren (PIT)	48.5 -115	48.5 -115

Ravens Best Bets:

The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 41% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.85 Units / 46% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.99 Units / 45% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 9 games at home (+9.40 Units / 77% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 84% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.45 Units / 45% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 47% ROI)

Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens are 6-10 (-5.05 Units / -28.53% ROI).

Ravens are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -15.01% ROI
Ravens are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
Ravens are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 8-8 (-0.65 Units / -3.75% ROI).

Steelers are 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 11.68% ROI
Steelers are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI
Steelers are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.23% ROI

Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers defense has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has forced 39 fumbles this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Steelers defense allowed successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in Week 17 — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Steelers defense allowed first downs on 4% of rush attempts in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens

The Steelers have converted late downs on just 22 of 377 plays (6%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Steelers have a third down conversion rate of 0% in the 4th quarter since Week 14 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Steelers have run successful plays on 24% of plays on play action passes since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Steelers have targeted WRs 41% of the time (343 Pass Attempts/833 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers