Ravens vs. Broncos Prediction: NFL Week 9 Odds, Betting Picks

Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 29, 2024, 3:49 PM
  • The Ravens are a 9-point home favorite against the Broncos.
  • The Ravens have won 14 straight games as favorites following a division loss.
  • My Ravens vs. Broncos prediction is for the Ravens to cover the spread.

On Sunday in Baltimore, the Ravens welcome the hot Broncos to M&T Bank Stadium for a conference matchup.ย 

The Ravens fell 29-24 in Week 8 to the Browns with a chance to secure a late win. Kyle Hamiltonโ€™s dropped interception led to a Jameis Winston touchdown, giving Cleveland a win.ย 

The Broncos continued their positive run with a win and a cover against the Panthers in Week 8. Denver now has five wins and covers in its last six games.ย 

Bet on Ravens vs. Broncos and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 9 Odds: Ravens vs. Broncos

Nov 3 - 1 pm EST

Broncos at Ravens

Ravens vs. Broncos Prediction

Based on the Broncosโ€™ easy schedule of opposing offenses, my Ravens vs. Broncos prediction is the Ravens Spread (-9, -120).ย 

Denver is a defensive darling based on their metrics. They lead the league in EPA per play and yards per play while sitting third in defensive success rate.ย 

But letโ€™s talk about the quarterbacks theyโ€™ve faced: Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew, Justin Herbert, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young.ย 

Rodgers jumps out from that group, but he operated in a torrential rainstorm during that game.ย 

To me, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the best offense Denver will have faced this season. And they have a clear edge offensively.ย 

Baltimore is far and away the best rushing team in the league. The Ravens sit fourth in rushing success rate and lead the league in yards/rush attempt.ย 

At 6.2 yards per attempt, the Ravens are ahead of the second-place team by the same gap as between the team in second and the team in 21st.ย 

Defensively, Denver ranks 15th in rushing success rate despite having faced only one team 10th or better in the corresponding offensive category.ย 

As for the questions around Baltimoreโ€™s defense, thereโ€™s a sign of encouragement.ย 

Baltimoreโ€™s three best defensive performances in terms of total yardage allowed have all come at home. In terms of yards/play, Baltimore ranks fifth at home.ย 

We know teams struggle to run the ball on Baltimore, so this comes down to whether Bo Nix can exploit Baltimoreโ€™s pass defense.ย 

Finally, history says itโ€™s wise to fade teams that are constantly covering.ย 

Since 2004, teams with five or more covers in their six previous games are 42.6% ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The opponentโ€™s previous game margin falls between -42 and -1
  • The teamโ€™s game number falls between 7 and 16

Those teams are 28-39-2 ATS as underdogs, including 4-12-2 ATS at +6 or higher.ย 

Ravens vs. Broncos: NFL Public Betting Trends

Check back on Friday for Ravens vs. Broncos public betting data and insights.ย 

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.