Saints vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 27, 2022, 10:28 AM
  • The 49ers (6-4) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Saints (4-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The New Orleans Saints (4-7) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (6-4) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Santa Clara.

The 49ers are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Saints vs. 49ers Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Saints+9.5 -11043 -110+333
49ers -9.5 -11043 -110-450

Saints vs. 49ers Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this Week 12 game with 80.0% confidence.

Saints vs 49ers Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread this Week 12 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Saints and 49ers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mark Ingram has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mark Ingram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Taysom Hill has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Jarvis Landry has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+3.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints have gone 4-7 (-3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI).

  • Saints are 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -22.84% ROI
  • Saints are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Saints are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.57% ROI).

  • 49ers are 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -3.19% ROI
  • 49ers are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • 49ers are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Saints are 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .411.

The Saints are winless (0-4) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Saints are winless (0-2) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .436.

The Saints are 2-6 (.250) when committing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The 49ers are 5-2 (.714) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 10th-best in NFL. The Saints have turned the ball over 19 times this season — tied for most in NFL.

The 49ers are winless (0-1) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The 49ers are winless (0-2) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

The 49ers are undefeated (11-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .539.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have scored on 66.7% of their drives in late and close games since Week 7 — second-best in NFL. The Saints defense has allowed scores on 55.6% of opponent drives in close and late situations since Week 7 — third-worst in NFL.

The 49ers are 5-2 (.714) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 10th-best in NFL. The Saints have turned the ball over 19 times this season — tied for most in NFL.

Saints RBs have averaged just 73.5 rushing yards per game this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed an average of just 82.1 rushing yards per game this season — best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 16.7% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 7 — tied for worst in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed scores on 0% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 7 — best in NFL.

Saints RBs have averaged just 44.2 rushing yards per game since Week 7 — worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed an average of just 58.7 rushing yards per game since Week 7 — second-best in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Saints threw the ball 10% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/62 plays) on second and 1-3 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Saints ran successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Saints have run successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Saints have gone three and out 26 times in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The 49ers have a third down conversion rate of 43% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The 49ers threw for 4 TDs in Week 11 — tied for most in NFL.

The 49ers have an average drive start position from the 24.1 yard line since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26.4.

The 49ers have an average drive start position from the 20.5 yard line in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.5.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

Only 8% of the plays ran against the Saints were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of plays in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The 49ers defense has allowed an average of 1.1 yards after contact per carry (231 carries) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

The 49ers defense has allowed first downs on 78% of plays on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

Only 7% of the plays run against the 49ers have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 63.4 in the red zone (27 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 92.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.