Saints vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13, MNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 01, 2022, 11:45 AM
  • The Buccaneers (5-6) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints (4-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) on Dec. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Tampa for Monday Night Football.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Saints vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Saints+3.5 -11040.5 -110+155
Buccaneers -3.5 -11040.5 -110-190

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 13 game with 67.5% confidence.

Saints vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread this Week 13 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Saints and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jarvis Landry has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Mark Ingram has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mark Ingram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Taysom Hill has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Chris Olave has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tom Brady has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Leonard Fournette has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.90 Units / 78% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints have gone 4-8 (-4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Saints are 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -27.83% ROI
  • Saints are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Saints are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 3-7 (-4.75 Units / -39.09% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -43.04% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-9 when betting the Over for -7.9 Units / -65.29% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 9-2 when betting the Under for +6.8 Units / 56.2% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints are 3-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — tied for best in NFL. The Buccaneers has allowed an average time of possession of 33 min and 33 s this season — highest in NFL.

The Saints are winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .267.

The Saints are winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.

The Saints are winless (0-4) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Buccaneers are 2-4 (.333) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .456.

The Buccaneers were undefeated (6-0) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .471.

The Buccaneers are 4-1 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .661.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have turned the ball over 7 times this season — tied for fewest in NFL. The Saints have forced 7 turnovers this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Buccaneers have thrown for just 5.8 yards per attempt on passes up the middle this season — worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just 6.9 yards per dropback when defending passes up the middle this season — third-best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 29% of their drives in the first half this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers defense has allowed scores on 25.9% of opponent drives in the first half this season — second-best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 23.8% of their drives since Week 9 — second-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers defense has allowed scores on 27.8% of opponent drives since Week 9 — fifth-best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 21.7% of their drives in the first half since Week 9 — third-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers defense has allowed scores on 17.6% of opponent drives in the first half since Week 9 — best in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Saints did not score on any drive in Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Saints did not record a TD in 9 drives in Week 12 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.5.

The Saints have not recorded a TD in 13 drives in the 1st quarter since Week 9 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Saints threw the ball 10% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/62 plays) on second and 1-3 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Buccaneers have run the ball on 32% of plays (600 carries/1,875 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers averaged 316.6 passing yards per game (5,383/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 244.0.

The Buccaneers converted first downs on 53 of 70 plays (76%) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Saints defense has intercepted 2 of 378 attempts (189.0 pass attempts per int.) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46.7.

The Saints defense has allowed 7.0 TDs per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

Only 10% of the plays run against the Saints have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 32% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

Only 37% of the plays run against the Buccaneers have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 24% of plays since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 23% of plays on 1st down since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.