Saints vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

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Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 8:16 AM
  • The Saints (0-0) are -5.5 favorites vs the Falcons (0-0)
  • Watch the game on FOX
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points

The New Orleans Saints (0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm ET in Atlanta.

The Saints are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New Orleans Saints-5.5 -11043 -110-225
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 -11043 -110+190

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Saints will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Saints and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Marquez Callaway has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Tony Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+3.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Adam Trautman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Calvin Ridley has hit the Receptions Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 51% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Saints

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Alvin Kamara +500
Michael Thomas +750
Cordarrelle Patterson +900
Kyle Pitts +1100
Jarvis Landry +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Saints

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Alvin Kamara -140
Cordarrelle Patterson +110
Michael Thomas +120
Kyle Pitts +145
Jarvis Landry +200

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Saints

Player Name Over Under
Alvin Kamara 29.5 -115 29.5 -110
Kyle Pitts 59.5 -115 59.5 -115
Cordarrelle Patterson 22.5 -115 22.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Saints

Player Name Over Under
Jameis Winston 15.5 -115 15.5 -115
Alvin Kamara 59.5 -115 59.5 -110
Marcus Mariota 24.5 -115 24.5 -115
Cordarrelle Patterson 28.5 -120 28.5 -110
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.50 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+7.75 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+7.65 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Saints were undefeated (7-0) when not committing any turnovers last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .731.

The Saints were 2-7-1 (.200) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .393.

The Saints were 1-5-1 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .356.

The Saints were 5-1-1 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .545.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Falcons were 1-2 (.333) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Falcons were winless (0-2) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .638.

The Falcons were winless (0-5) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .410.

The Falcons were 1-6 (.143) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .454.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were successful on just 39.6% of plays they have run last season — fifth-worst in NFL. Saints allowed their opponents to be successful on just 37.2% of plays last season — best in NFL.

The Falcons ran successful plays on just 40.9% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last season — third-worst in NFL. Saints allowed successful plays on just 43.5% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Falcons ran successful plays on just 34.9% of rush attempts last season — third-worst in NFL. Saints allowed successful plays on just 33.3% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL.

Saints RBs have averaged 8.4 yards after the catch since the 2020 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 8.3 yards after catch per reception to RBs since the 2020 season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

Saints RBs had 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game last season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed an average of 25 PPG last season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Saints have scored 82 TDs in the red zone since the 2020 season — fifth-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 80 TDs when defending in the red zone since the 2020 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Saints went three and out 21 times in the 3rd quarter last season — most in NFL.

The Saints threw the ball 10% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/62 plays) on second and 1-3 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Saints ran successful plays on 75% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Saints went three and out on 33% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Falcons ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 36% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in close and late situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Falcons averaged 78.1 yards from scrimmage per game (1,327 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

Only 8% of the plays ran against the Saints were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 32% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Saints defense allowed a passer rating of just 61.1 when blitzing (128 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.5.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 55.0 pass attempts (110 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.0.

The Falcons defense averaged 1.1 sacks per game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.