Saints vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:13 PM

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A general overall interior view of Mercedes-Benz Stadium during an NFL football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)

(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)

The Falcons are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Watch this game on FOX

The New Orleans Saints (6-10-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (7-9-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).

The Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 58.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Falcons Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Chris Olave has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Chris Olave has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 69% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Tyler Shough has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Tyler Shough has hit the Completions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 54% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+8.14 Units / 43% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.51 Units / 34% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 33% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 48% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+5.40 Units / 20% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.92 Units / 58% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 8-8 (-0.85 Units / -4.82% ROI).

Saints are 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -4.85% ROI
Saints are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
Saints are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 9-7 (+1.3 Units / 7.34% ROI).

Falcons are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -14.41% ROI
Falcons are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI
Falcons are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.23% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 9% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Falcons defense has allowed a passer rating of just 54.7 with a heavy rush (43 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 110.4.

The Falcons defense has allowed a passer rating of 79.6 when they have pressured the QB (116 Pass Attempts) this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52.7.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Falcons are winless (0-5) when intercepting no passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .342.

The Falcons are winless (0-3) when rushing for less than 100 yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .298.

The Falcons are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the first half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .244.

The Falcons are 4-3 (.571) when forcing 2 or more turnovers this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .703.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons