- The Saints are a 6.5-point home underdog against the Cardinals.
- The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven straight September road games.
- My Saints vs. Cardinals prediction is the pregame total under 42.5 points.
The Kellen Moore era begins in New Orleans as the Saints host the Cardinals in Week 1.
New Orleans bagged a 2-0 start to 2024, but the season quickly fell apart. The Saints earned only three wins in their final 15 games, with injuries playing a significant role.
Arizona narrowly missed the playoffs after stumbling late. After a 6-4 start, Jonathan Gannon’s side lost five of six to end its postseason hopes.
Bet on Saints vs. Cardinals and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Saints vs Cardinals: NFL Week 1 Odds
- Date: Sunday, September 7
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Saints vs Cardinals Prediction
Based on Arizona’s improving defense and Kyler Murray’s over/under record away from home, my Saints vs. Cardinals prediction is Under 42.5 Points (-105).
Playing a side in this game simply isn’t an option for me. Murray struggles to cover big spreads, but I hold little interest in New Orleans with either Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough.
That brings me to the over/under.
Murray is 25-13-1 to the under on the road in his career. Only 10 of those starts saw him close a road favorite with eight staying under the total.
If a slight concern exists, it’s that most of those totals closed high. Of those 39 games, only five closed with a total south of 43.5. Three of five finished under the total.
That said, I hold confidence in Arizona’s defense. Last year, Gannon’s team finished 14th in defensive DVOA against the third-hardest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
In 2023, Arizona finished 32nd in DVOA against the hardest set of offenses.
That experience against strong offenses should help against a bad Saints offense. Last year, New Orleans ranked 23rd in offensive DVOA along with 29th in weighted offensive DVOA.
From Week 9 onward, Arizona played two games against teams with a -8.5% or higher weighted offensive DVOA.
Both scored 17 or fewer points, including a nine-point performance from the Bears.
Those games finished 1-1 against 42.5 points. However, a trip to New England cleared this total thanks to an Arizona defensive score.
As a result, it’s the under or nothing for me in this Week 1 meeting.
Betting Saints vs Cardinals: NFL Public Betting
Data is reflective as of Tuesday, September 2.
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals (-6.5) | 77% | 87% | 46% | 74% |
| Saints (+6.5) | 23% | 13% | 54% | 26% |
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