- The Saints are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Patriots.
- The Patriots have won each of their last 13 October games as road favorites.
- My Saints vs Patriots prediction is for the Patriots (-3.5) to cover the spread.
Off a massive win against the Bills, the Patriots travel to New Orleans for a meeting with the Saints.
New England won outright as an 8-point underdog in Buffalo. The win moves New England within a game of Buffalo for the AFC East lead.
New Orleans won and covered 26-14 over the Giants in Week 5. It gave the Saints their first win of the Kellen Moore era and marked the first time all year New Orleans allowed under 20 points.
Bet on Saints vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Saints vs. Patriots: NFL Week 6 Odds
Saints vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on the Patriots’ offensive advantage over New Orleans and the success of fading dogs off a cover, my Saints vs Patriots prediction is the Patriots Spread (-3.5, -110).
Week 5 doesn’t change my opinion about the New Orleans defense. Entering the matchup against a Giants offense sans Malik Nabers, New Orleans ranked 30th in defensive DVOA.
Now the team gets a Patriots offense that really impressed me in Buffalo. Josh McDaniels’ offense averaged six yards per play, including 7.9 yards per pass.
That should continue against a bad Saints pass defense.
Excluding Week 5, New England ranked eighth in pass offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. Conversely, the Saints ranked 29th in the corresponding defensive category.
Plus, New Orleans scored 14 wildly lucky points against the Giants. Rashid Shaheed caught an 87-yard touchdown pass before New Orleans scored on an 86-yard fumble return late.
The Saints did go 0-for-3 in the red zone, but I question if regression arrives against a good Patriots defense.
Plus, history suggests it’s profitable to fade dogs off a cover against a team off a win.
Since 2003, dogs that closed a previous favorite are 36-80-3 ATS (31%), assuming three factors:
- The dog’s previous ATS margin falls between 0.5 and 14.5
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +3 and +20
- The dog’s spread is +3, +3.5 or +4
Over the last three seasons, fading those dogs has seen bettors go 14-1-1 ATS, including 5-0 at +3.5 and 1-0 at +4.
As a result, I predict a second straight win and cover for the Patriots against a weak Saints defense.
Betting Saints vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 64% | 55% | 72% | 30% |
| Saints | 36% | 45% | 28% | 70% |
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
