Steelers vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:17 AM
  • The Bills (3-1) are -14 point favorites vs the Steelers (1-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-1) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Orchard Park.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Steelers vs. Bills Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Steelers +14 -110 45 -110 +600
Bills -14 -110 45 -110 -900

Steelers vs. Bills Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 5 game with 80.0% confidence.

Steelers vs Bills Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 5 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Steelers and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Mitchell Trubisky has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Diontae Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 18 games (+1.35 Units / 7% ROI)

 

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Zack Moss has hit the Carries Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Zack Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Stefon Diggs has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.40 Units / 32% ROI)

 

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Steelers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Stefon Diggs +450
Josh Allen +750
Gabriel Davis +750
Devin Singletary +800
Quintin Morris +1000

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Steelers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Stefon Diggs -140
Najee Harris +100
Devin Singletary +125
Josh Allen +130
Gabriel Davis +130

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Steelers

Player Name Over Under
Devin Singletary 17.5 -120 17.5 -110
Najee Harris 14.5 -115 14.5 -110
Chase Claypool 32.5 -115 32.5 -115
Diontae Johnson 50.5 -115 50.5 -115
Stefon Diggs 79.5 -115 79.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Steelers

Player Name Over Under
Devin Singletary 51.5 -115 51.5 -115
Josh Allen 39.5 -115 39.5 -115
Najee Harris 53.5 -115 53.5 -115
Kenny Pickett 17.5 -115 17.5 -115

 

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)

 

 

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)

 

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).

  • Steelers are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -20.65% ROI
  • Steelers are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Steelers are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI).

  • Bills are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 10.64% ROI
  • Bills are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • Bills are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Steelers are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433.

The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Steelers are 2-8-1 (.182) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — eighth-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 26 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

The Steelers were 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .459.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bills are 10-1 (.909) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed an average of 144.2 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.

The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .339.

The Bills are winless (0-3) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .149.

The Bills are 9-2 (.818) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .563.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have run 55.7% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — best in NFL. Steelers have allowed their opponents to run 52.2% of plays in their territory this season — tied for worst in NFL.

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 29.4 yard line since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed an average drive start position from the 27.5 yard line since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills are 10-1 (.909) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed an average of 144.2 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.

The Steelers have run successful plays on just 41.1% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on just 39.4% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL.

The Steelers have run successful plays on just 34.7% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. Bills have allowed successful plays on just 41.9% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL.

The Steelers have thrown for 783 passing yards in 4 games (just 195.8 YPG) this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 150.8 passing yards per game this season — best in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

The Steelers ran the ball on 27% of plays (39 carries/144 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers have run 23% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Steelers have run 5% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Steelers have faced a blitz just 6% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 57% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have not drawn any flags for offensive holding this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Bills have run 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

The Steelers defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 24 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense allowed successful plays on 23% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Steelers defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 27 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense have forced three and outs on 28% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.3 (645 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.4.

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.