Steelers vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

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Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) before an NFL football game in Empower Field at Mile High Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)
(AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2024, 11:29 AM
  • The Steelers are -3 point favorites vs the Broncos
  • Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (0-1-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Steelers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Steelers-3 -11036.5 -110-160
Broncos +3 -11036.5 -110+135

Steelers vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 58.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Steelers vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.85 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.80 Units / 116% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have scored first in their last 6 games at home (+6.30 Units / 76% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Steelers went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Steelers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 165% ROI
  • Steelers are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Steelers are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Broncos went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Broncos are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Broncos are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Broncos are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Steelers were undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.

The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Broncos were winless (0-4) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Broncos were 4-4 (.500) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Broncos were 8-4 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .592.

The Broncos were 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have been successful on just 38.4% of plays they have run since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.5% of plays since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Broncos have been successful on just 38.5% of plays they have run with motion since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 39.4% of plays against motion since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Broncos have been successful on just 39.6% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 42.6% of plays on play action passes since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Steelers RBs averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Broncos allowed 2.1 yards after contact per carry last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Steelers RBs averaged 107.0 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Broncos allowed an average of 140.9 rushing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Steelers have run successful plays on just 27.3% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 35.7% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats

The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Steelers threw the ball 31% of the time (57 Pass Attempts/185 plays) on Early Downs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Steelers averaged -0.84 epa per play on contested throws in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against a base front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/511 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 24% of pass attempts in Week 1 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos have scored on 15% of their drives in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats

The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.5.

The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of rush attempts on motion plays since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 23.9 when blitzing (30 Pass Attempts) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 88.4.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.0 against play action passes (114 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 100.8.

The Broncos defense allowed 0.10 epa per play at home last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Broncos defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 22% in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Broncos defense allowed an average of 2.1 yards after contact per carry (428 carries) last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.