Steelers vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

BetMGM Betting Dec 27, 2025, 11:11 AM

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FILE - Huntington Bank Field during an NFL football game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants, Sept. 22, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Kirk Irwin, File)

(AP Photo/Kirk Irwin, File)

The Steelers are -3.5 point favorites vs the Browns
Total (Over/Under): 34 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (3-12-0) on Dec. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Cleveland, OH.

The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Steelers vs. Browns Over/Under is 34 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Steelers vs. Browns Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 65.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Steelers vs Browns Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 59.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 62% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 44% ROI)
Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Darnell Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

Quinshon Judkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI)
Cedric Tillman has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 53% ROI)
Harold Fannin Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Jerry Jeudy has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)
Cedric Tillman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.86 Units / 23% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Browns Best Bets:

The Cleveland Browns have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+5.75 Units / 55% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 8-7 (+0.45 Units / 2.77% ROI).

Steelers are 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 21.92% ROI
Steelers are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 8.48% ROI
Steelers are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / ROI

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 6-9 (-3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Browns are 3-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -44.74% ROI
Browns are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI
Browns are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 18% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Browns defense has not allowed a third down conversion with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns are 3-12 (.200) this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .498.

The Browns are winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .409.

The Browns are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Steelers in Week 17 (Ranks 23rd in passing offense).

The Browns are winless (0-3) after a win this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .576.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns