- The Steelers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Browns
- Total (Over/Under): 38 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (2-1-0) on Oct. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm in Cleveland, OH.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-130).
The Steelers vs. Browns Over/Under is 38 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | -2.5 -130 | 38 -110 | -145 |
| Browns | +2.5 -105 | 38 -118 | +125 |
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 54.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Browns Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 away games (+7.40 Units / 86% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Darnell Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Darnell Washington has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Quinshon Judkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Quinshon Judkins has hit the Longest Rush Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Harold Fannin Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | +350 |
| Quinshon Judkins | +650 |
| DK Metcalf | +900 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | +1200 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | +1250 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | -118 |
| Quinshon Judkins | +120 |
| DK Metcalf | +240 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | +260 |
| Deshaun Watson | +290 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 40.5 -115 | 40.5 -115 |
| KC Concepcion | 38.5 -111 | 38.5 -118 |
| Denzel Boston | 36.5 -120 | 36.5 -110 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 34.5 -115 | 34.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 73.5 -115 | 73.5 -115 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| Deshaun Watson | 31.5 -120 | 31.5 -111 |
| Raheim Sanders | 5.5 -111 | 5.5 -120 |
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Browns Best Bets:
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Over in their last 9 games at home (+9.25 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.45 Units / 47% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Steelers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 30.3% ROI
- Steelers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- SteelersSteelersSteelers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Browns are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 111.67% ROI
- Browns are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Browns are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns
Steelers are 3-8 (.273) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (10th-worst in NFL) and 1.000 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (best in NFL).
The Steelers are 3-6 (.333) after a win since the 2025 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .565.
The Steelers are 7-7 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2025 season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
The Steelers are 7-3 (.700) at home since the 2025 season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .544.
Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns are winless (0-7) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .198.
The Browns are winless (0-11) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .269.
The Browns are 3-9 (.250) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2025 season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Browns are 5-2 (.714) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .517.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have averaged just -0.17 epa per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just -0.16 epa per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL.
The Browns have been successful on just 37.7% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2025 season — worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed a success rate of just 42.9% on play action passes since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Browns have been successful on just 38.3% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed a success rate of just 46.5% on pass attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Steelers have averaged just -0.06 epa per play with motion since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed just -0.14 epa per play against motion since the 2025 season — best in NFL.
The Steelers have averaged just -0.05 epa per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed just -0.09 epa per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Steelers went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — T-best in NFL. The Browns forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Steelers have run successful plays on 67% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Steelers have converted late downs on just 2 of 68 plays (3%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Steelers have targeted WRs 22% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/9 plays) in the red zone this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats
The Browns have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Browns have averaged -0.17 epa per play in the 2nd half since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts against a base rush since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Browns are averaging 7.9 drives per TD in the 2nd half since the 2025 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
Only 4% of the plays run against the Steelers have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
No plays have been run against the Steelers were in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Steelers defense have allowed -0.48 epa per play against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
The Steelers defense have allowed -0.16 epa per play against play action passes since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats
The Browns defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 2% with tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Browns defense has allowed a passer rating of 145.8 when the opposing QB has scrambled (6 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 55.4.
The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 12% of rush attempts on motion plays in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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