Steelers vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12, MNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 27, 2022, 10:28 AM
  • The Colts (4-6) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Steelers (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (4-6) on Nov. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Indianapolis for Monday Night Fooball.

The Colts are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Steelers vs. Colts Over/Under is 39 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Steelers+2.5 -11039 -110+120
Colts -2.5 -11039 -110-145

Steelers vs. Colts Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Colts will win this Week 12 game with 53.5% confidence.

Steelers vs Colts Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 12 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Steelers and Colts, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kenny Pickett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Mitchell Trubisky has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Interceptions Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.65 Units / 57% ROI)
  • George Pickens has hit the Receptions Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.15 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Parris Campbell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Parris Campbell has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Alec Pierce has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.20 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.75 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.50 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone 4-5 (-1.5 Units / -13.7% ROI).

  • Steelers are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -3.72% ROI
  • Steelers are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Steelers are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 5-6 (-1.45 Units / -12.24% ROI).

  • Colts are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -12.38% ROI
  • Colts are 2-9 when betting the Over for -7.9 Units / -65.29% ROI
  • Colts are 9-2 when betting the Under for +6.8 Units / 56.2% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers are winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Steelers are winless (0-5) when committing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

The Steelers are winless (0-4) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .207.

The Steelers are winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .437.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Colts are 2-3 (.400) at home this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .540.

The Colts were 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

The Colts are 2-6 (.250) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Colts are 1-5 (.167) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — tied for 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have run successful plays on just 36.9% of rush attempts this season — third-worst in NFL. Steelers have allowed successful plays on just 39.3% of rush attempts this season — fifth-best in NFL.

Colts RBs have averaged just 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just 1.3 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for second-best in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on 45.5% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since Week 7 — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on just 13.4% of passing plays since Week 7 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Steelers have scored on 23.6% of their drives in the second half this season — third-worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed scores on 27.4% of opponent drives in the second half this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Steelers have a third down conversion rate of just 18.2% against the blitz this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 25.0% when blitzing this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

The Steelers are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 4.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — fourth-best in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Steelers are averaging 27.0 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Steelers ran the ball on 27% of plays (39 carries/144 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers ran the ball on 13% of plays (31 carries/239 plays) on 3rd down last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Colts have gone three and out 15 times in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Colts are averaging 12.8 drives per TD in the 1st half this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.7.

The Colts threw the ball 33% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/99 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Colts have scored on 29% of their drives this season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Steelers defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (55/618) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Steelers defense have forced three and outs on 28% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Steelers defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 24 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 31 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Colts defense has allowed an average of 1.5 yards after contact per carry (720 carries) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Colts defense allowed a passer rating of just 47.5 on 3rd and short (36 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 98.4.

The Colts defense allowed 12 TD passes in close and late situations last season — most in NFL.

The Colts defense has allowed an average of 1.2 yards after contact per carry (312 carries) this season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.