Steelers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 1

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) catches a pass for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in Atlanta. The Atlanta Falcons won 24-15. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
  • The Falcons are -3 point favorites vs the Steelers
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Steelers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Steelers+3 -11042 -110+125
Falcons -3 -11042 -110-150

Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 58.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Steelers vs Falcons Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.


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Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.70 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bijan Robinson has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rondale Moore has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Steelers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Bijan Robinson (Atl) +550
Najee Harris (Pit) +850
Drake London (Atl) +850

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Steelers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Bijan Robinson (Atl) -105

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Steelers

Player Name Over Under
Bijan Robinson (ATL) 25.5 -110 25.5 -120
Darnell Mooney (ATL) 33.5 -110 33.5 -120
George Pickens (PIT) 53.5 -115 53.5 -115
Najee Harris (PIT) 8.5 -110 8.5 -120
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 25.5 -110 25.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Steelers

Player Name Over Under
Bijan Robinson (ATL) 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
Russell Wilson (PIT) 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
Najee Harris (PIT) 52.5 -120 52.5 -110
Kirk Cousins (ATL) 2.5 -125 2.5 -105
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.50 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Steelers went 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Steelers are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -100% ROI
  • Steelers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Steelers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Falcons went 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Falcons are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -100% ROI
  • Falcons are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Falcons are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers were 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception last season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Falcons intercepted 8 passes last season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.

The Steelers are 17-4 (.810) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Falcons have intercepted 18 passes since the 2022 season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Falcons were winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.

The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) after a win last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Falcons are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .298.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons scored just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive last season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers allowed just 3.8 points per Red Zone drive last season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

The Falcons scored just 3.0 points per Red Zone drive in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Steelers allowed just 3.5 points per Red Zone drive in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Steelers ran successful plays on just 33.1% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last season — worst in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on just 43.3% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Steelers ran successful plays on just 32.1% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Falcons pressured opposing QBs on 52.9% of pass attempts with a heavy rush last season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Steelers rushed the ball on 73.9% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats

The Steelers targeted RBs 50% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/20 plays) in Week 18 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Steelers averaged -0.44 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Steelers ran 50% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 18 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Steelers were flagged 37 times on offense last season — fewest in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 12% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts against a light front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats

The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Steelers defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Steelers defense allowed successful plays on 35% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Steelers defense allowed an average of 0.1 yards after contact per carry (24 carries) in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 18 — T-most in NFL.

The Falcons defense allowed 6 TDs in Week 18 — most in NFL.

Only 7% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 143.5 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.