Steelers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 01, 2022, 11:45 AM
  • The Falcons (5-7) are -1 point favorites vs the Steelers (4-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) on Dec. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta.

The Steelers are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Steelers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Steelers-1 -11042 -110-115
Falcons +1 -11042 -110-105

Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this Week 13 game with 51.7% confidence.

Steelers vs Falcons Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 13 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Steelers and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kenny Pickett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 6 games (+6.45 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.65 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Mitchell Trubisky has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Completions Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 42% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Steelers

Player Name Over Under
Firkser 9.5 -115 9.5 -115
Drake London 34.5 -115 34.5 -115
George Pickens 46.5 -110 46.5 -120
Steven Sims Jr 12.5 -110 12.5 -120
Parker Hesse 7.5 -115 7.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Steelers

Player Name Over Under
Cordarrelle Patterson 50.5 -120 50.5 -115
Kenny Pickett 24.5 -115 24.5 -115
Marcus Mariota 41.5 -120 41.5 -110
Tyler Allgeier 38.5 -115 38.5 -115
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.65 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.15% ROI).

  • Steelers are 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 6.81% ROI
  • Steelers are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Steelers are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 7-5 (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

  • Falcons are 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -12.9% ROI
  • Falcons are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Falcons are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers are winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .433.

The Steelers are winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

The Steelers are winless (0-5) when committing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .405.

The Steelers were 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .459.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Falcons are winless (0-3) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .418.

The Falcons are 2-1 (.667) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .539.

The Falcons are 3-6 (.333) when underdogs this season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .389.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have run successful plays on 41.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on just 15.8% of passing plays this season — third-worst in NFL.

Falcons WRs have gained 1,344 yards on 95 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — third-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 14.7 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have scored on 18.2% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 9 — fifth-worst in NFL. The Steelers defense has allowed scores on 20% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 9 — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

The Steelers were successful on 50.0% of plays they have run last week — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Falcons allowed their opponents to be successful on 52.5% of plays in Week 12 — second-worst in NFL.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 57.1% of rush attempts last week — fourth-best in NFL. Falcons allowed successful plays on 58.3% of rush attempts in Week 12 — third-worst in NFL.

Steelers TEs have 69 receptions in 11 games (6.3 per game) this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 5.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Steelers are averaging 30.0 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Steelers ran the ball on 27% of plays (39 carries/144 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 41% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

One of the Steelers offense’s 7 (14%) TDs have come through the air since Week 9 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Falcons have thrown the ball 40% of the time (276 Pass Attempts/693 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Falcons have thrown 61% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 29% of the time (91 Pass Attempts/314 plays) on 1st down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Falcons have run the ball on 55% of plays (381 carries/693 plays) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Steelers defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 24 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (55/618) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Steelers defense have forced three and outs on 28% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Steelers defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 31 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 29.5 pass attempts (1,033 Pass Attempts/35 Sacks) since the 2021 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.6.

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.