- The Patriots are -5 point favorites vs the Steelers
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (0-1-0) on Sep. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Foxborough, MA.
The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | +5 -108 | 43.5 -145 | +195 |
| Patriots | -5 -110 | 43.5 +110 | -235 |
Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 70.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the Interceptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.40 Units / 84% ROI)
- Darnell Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Darnell Washington has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 77% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Mack Hollins has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Steelers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | -110 |
| Rico Dowdle | +165 |
| Jaylen Warren | +165 |
| Drake Maye | +220 |
| Hunter Henry | +220 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 53.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
| Romeo Doubs | 39.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Hunter Henry | 37.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 |
| Demario Douglas | 37.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Warren | 39.5 -111 | 39.5 -120 |
| Rico Dowdle | 36.5 -120 | 36.5 -111 |
| Drake Maye | 26.5 -115 | 26.5 -115 |
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+16.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+15.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Steelers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 33.9% ROI
- Steelers are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- SteelersSteelersSteelers are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 0-0 (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Steelers were 3-7 (.300) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (10th-worst in NFL) and 1.000 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season (best in NFL).
Steelers are 3-7 (.300) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (T-9th-worst in NFL) and 1.000 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (best in NFL).
The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .542.
The Steelers are 5-1 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .591.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Patriots were 10-2 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Steelers allowed 243.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Patriots are 14-1 (.933) when scoring 22 or more points (3rd-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Patriots are undefeated (3-0) after a loss since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .413.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots ran just 3.0% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Steelers allowed their opponent to run just 0.0% of plays in the red zone last week — best in NFL.
The Patriots threw for 4,459 passing yards in 17 games (262.3 YPG) last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Steelers allowed 243.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Patriots were 10-2 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Steelers allowed 243.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Steelers have averaged just -0.12 epa per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just -0.12 epa per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Steelers WRs have just 102.2 receiving yards per game since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 120.8 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.
Steelers RBs averaged 7.9 targets per game last season — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Patriots allowed 4.8 receptions per game to RBs last season — T-5th-highest in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in Week 1 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Steelers have averaged just 5.5 yards per play on play action passes since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.
The Steelers have run successful plays on 70% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Steelers have faced a blitz just 4% of the time on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots had an average drive start position from the 12.0 yard line in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.4.
The Patriots scored 6 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 58% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
Offenses facing the Steelers targeted RBs 46% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/22 plays) in Week 1 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
No plays were run against the Steelers in the red zone in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Steelers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% on contested throws since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.
The Steelers defense has forced 20 fumbles since the 2025 season — T-most in NFL.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Only 9% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone in the 1st half since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Patriots defense allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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