Steelers Odds: Betting Market is Dead Wrong on Steelers Playoff Chances

The NFL betting world is just a few more days away from regular season games. 

For bettors, that means it’s time to start locking in those handicaps and finalize any NFL future odds bets.

One of the most interesting positions I’ve identified during all my offseason research revolves around the AFC North and the Steelers. 

In short: There is a huge perception gap between what the Steelers will look like in 2022 and what the betting market thinks they will look like.

Let’s dive in.

What Are the Steelers’ Odds to Win the AFC North?

The Steelers are +900 at BetMGM to win the AFC – by far the highest price of any team in the division.

The Ravens (+145) are the current market favorite, closely followed by the Bengals (+175).

Steelers Playoff Chances: AFC Playoff Picture Remains Hyper-Competitive

At BetMGM online sportsbook, the Steelers are +300 just to make the playoffs. 

Following the retirement of Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the market is down on the Steelers’ playoff chances. The price for Pittsburgh to miss the postseason is -400.

Steelers Odds: Evaluating the Pittsburgh Win Total After Ben Roethlisberger’s Retirement

Most bet NFL OVERSs @BetMGM:

— Lions 6.5
— Saints 8.5
— Steelers 7.5
— Jets 5.5
— Dolphins 8.5

Most bet NFL UNDERs @BetMGM:

— Bears 6.5
— Cowboys 10.5
— Steelers 7.5
— Seahawks 5.5
— Titans 9.5

— Zach Gayner (@ZachGayner) August 22, 2022

As we’ve covered, the market is down on the Steelers, so it’s not all that surprising to learn that the Pittsburgh under is one of the trendiest public tickets of the preseason.

At BetMGM, the win total for the Steelers is currently set at 7.5, with slight (-115) juice on the under.

Earlier this month, I recorded an episode of my gambling podcast, The Lion’s Edge, that focused on handicapping the AFC North. The value of the Steelers stuck out to me like a sore thumb. 

Of the 37 quarterbacks with enough qualifying snaps, PFF graded Ben Roethlisberger as the dead-last worst QB in the NFL last season. 

Despite his ineffectiveness, the Steelers still competed for the divisional title. They ultimately got to 9-7-1 and made the AFC Playoffs. 

The gambling market sees the Steelers as a team that is losing a Hall of Fame quarterback. And that’s true! But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Steelers will be worse off in 2022, relative to their situation in 2021. As a result, their NFL odds are undervalued.

We know that Mike Tomlin will run an effective coaching staff, and TJ Watt will anchor a potent defense. 

If the Steelers can get league-average play out of their quarterback room – something they weren’t even close to in 2021 – the Steelers are a great bet to go Over 7.5 wins. 

I’ve also bet them to make the playoffs at +300 and win the division at +900.

 

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For the full podcast episode covering the Browns, Steelers and overall AFC North odds market, don’t forget to check out The Lion’s Edge podcast for all the news and analysis you need on NFL betting lines.

It has intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.