- The Steelers are a 6-point home favorite against the Browns.
- The Browns have lost each of their last 10 road games.
- My Steelers vs Browns prediction is the Total Under 38.5 Points (-110).
The Steelers face their first AFC North contest of the year with a Week 6 meeting against the Browns.
Cleveland fell to the Vikings 21-17 in London, the team’s second straight loss. Now, Kevin Stefanski’s team aims to better a 1-21 run in Pittsburgh over the last 22 games.
Pittsburgh had its bye week last week, sitting at 3-1. Mike Tomlin’s team has won two straight games and sits atop the AFC North.
Bet on Steelers vs. Browns and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Steelers vs. Browns: NFL Week 6 Odds
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction
Based on the Browns’ defensive strength and the difficult travel spot for the offense, my Steelers vs Browns prediction is the Total Under 38.5 Points (-110).
The best unit on the field will be Cleveland’s defense. Jim Schwartz’s defense sits seventh in defensive DVOA and possesses a game-wrecking defensive line.
Cleveland leads the NFL in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate, per ESPN. While Pittsburgh ranks 10th in run-block win rate, the team sits 31st in pass blocking.
Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t faced much quality defensively yet. The closest comparison to the Browns is the Seahawks, who limited Pittsburgh to 17 points.
Both Cleveland and Seattle possess strong run-stopping units. Cleveland leads the league in rush defense DVOA while Seattle sits second, per ftnfantasy.com.
If Cleveland repeatedly forces Pittsburgh into third-and-long, the pass rush can shine against an immobile quarterback.
That said, I lack faith in the Browns offense scoring many points.
The Browns elected not to take a bye week after their international game last week. Plus, I worry about Dillon Gabriel against a Tomlin defense that traditionally dominates rookie quarterbacks.
The Steelers defense is also getting healthier. Early injuries could be a reason the Steelers rank 14th in defensive DVOA.
Cleveland offers the easiest test for Pittsburgh’s defense, which likely gets Alex Highsmith and Joey Porter Jr. back for Sunday’s game.
Finally, the Steelers enter Sunday’s game with extra rest. Against a Cleveland offense logging tons of mileage, I predict it’s a tough outing for Gabriel.
All of those factors lead me to believe it’s a low-scoring contest on Sunday in Pittsburgh.
Betting Steelers vs. Browns: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 28% | 28% | 42% | 21% |
| Steelers | 72% | 72% | 58% | 79% |
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