- The Steelers are currently a three-point home underdog against the Texans.
- The Steelers have won 23 of their last 24 Monday home games.
- My Steelers vs Texans prediction is for the Steelers (+3.5) to cover the spread.
To close out the NFL wild-card round, the Steelers host the Texans as home underdogs.
Pittsburgh claimed the AFC North with a dramatic win over the Ravens on SNF. Now, Mike Tomlin aims to end a six-game ATS losing streak in the postseason.
Houston earned the top wild-card spot with a 38-30 Week 18 win over the Colts. DeMeco Ryans, who is 0-2 on the road in the playoffs, now goes for a 10th straight win with Houston.
Bet on Steelers vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Steelers vs. Texans: NFL Wild Card Odds
Steelers vs. Texans Prediction
Based on Pittsburgh’s edge on the ground and their ability to pressure C.J. Stroud, my Steelers vs Texans prediction is the Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (+3.5, -118).
You’re going to hear all week that Mike Tomlin can’t win a playoff game. However, the context of that claim must be considered.
Here are Tomlin’s recent ATS failures in the postseason:
- 2025: +9.5 at Baltimore Ravens
- 2024: +10 at Buffalo Bills
- 2022: +11.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
What do those teams have in common? All three finished with a +20% offensive DVOA rating or higher.
I reference that to illustrate that this Texans offense is not operating at that level.
For the season, Houston ranks 19th in offensive DVOA (-2.5%) and 16th in weighted DVOA (-1.5%).
The team can’t run the ball (29th in rush offense DVOA), which wouldn’t matter except that the Steelers rush defense has performed markedly better with Derrick Harmon available.
Essentially, you’re asking Stroud to complete third-and-long attempts to create margin constantly. Of concern – he ranks 18th in DVOA against man coverage.
Do I have concerns about Pittsburgh’s offense against Houston’s defense? Of course. But two factors give me optimism.
First is Pittsburgh’s ability to run the ball. Second is that the offensive line is good enough to limit Houston’s pass rush.
Given those factors, I’m confident enough that Pittsburgh can move the ball and stay within a key number.
Betting Steelers vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Texans (-3) | 65% | 63% |
| Steelers (+3) | 35% | 37% |
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