- The Eagles are +110 to win the Super Bowl after opening at 16/1.
- For Philadelphia, I envision two paths to winning Super Bowl 59 over the Chiefs.
- The case for bettors hedging with the Chiefs based on the Eagles rushing trends.
To hedge or not to hedge: an age-old sports betting question when a futures bet reaches the final game.
In my case, I’m holding an Eagles Super Bowl ticket from before the regular season at 16/1.
Sadly, despite my preseason skepticism of the AFC West, the same can’t be said about Kansas City.
If you’re in the same boat, I’ve outlined my position as to whether to hedge with a bet on Kansas City based on Super Bowl odds.
Bet on Super Bowl 59: Current NFL Odds
Super Bowl Betting: Should You Hedge an Eagles Future?
Based on the Eagles’ lack of experience against quality rush defenses and their potential offensive regression, hedging with a Chiefs bet should be considered.
For the Eagles to win Super Bowl 59, there are essentially two paths to success:
- Kansas City scores 20 or fewer points. This season, Philadelphia is 13-0 SU when keeping teams under that benchmark.
- The Eagles rush for at least 212 rushing yards. This season, Philadelphia is 6-0 SU when that happens.
There’s one glimmer of hope for Eagles futures bettors based on the former trend.
In games with Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City scored 20 or fewer points only four times.
Three of those games came against a team fifth or better in opponent red zone touchdown percentage. This season, the Eagles rank fifth in that category.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank 22nd in the corresponding offensive category, per teamrankings.com.
But Philadelphia’s ability to rush the ball against Kansas City should be questioned.
Kansas City allowed only one team to rush for more than 200 yards this season. It came in Week 17 against Pittsburgh with a Chris Jones-less defense.
Plus, the Eagles rush offense ranks sixth in DVOA but has largely faced an easy schedule. Opposing defenses averaged a rush DVOA rating of 19.1, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Eagles have faced only five defenses 10th or better in opponent yards per rush attempt.
Their average rush yards per game in those contests is 139.4, down from a season-long average of 186.6.
Even if you throw out Week 4 at Tampa Bay – they didn’t have Lane Johnson – it’s still 146 rush yards per game.
That said, I’m going to wait to make a decision to see if the line moves off Chiefs -1.5.
History tells us to follow line moves in the Super Bowl. Since 2003, teams that see their spread worsen (+3 to +2.5, -2 to -2.5) are 14-4 SU in the big game.
On the off chance Philadelphia takes money, I may reconsider my position. Based on current information, bettors should consider guaranteeing a profit with a wager on the Chiefs.
