Super Bowl Longshots: 2 Teams with Best Betting Value

In 2025, the Seattle Seahawks came through as a Super Bowl longshot winner.

Seattle closed outside +5000 to win the Super Bowl before the regular season. It marked the first time since the 2017 Eagles (+4000) that a team outside +1600 won the Super Bowl.

Another longshot coming through this year looks highly unlikely. That said, a few teams catch my eye for their price and potential defensive ceiling.

Let’s dive into the longshot predictions based on NFL odds from BetMGM.

2 Best Super Bowl Longshot Betting Values 2026

Minnesota Vikings (+5000)

There’s reason for skepticism around Minnesota, which finished third in defensive DVOA last year. However, they simultaneously proved the highest-variance unit in the league.

When the Vikings played competent quarterbacks, they looked horrible. But when they faced lackluster signal-callers, the defense posted ungodly metrics.

More Analysis: Vikings Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction

This year’s schedule projects as a difficult one for the defense. Based on 2025 offensive DVOA data, only Seattle projects to face a more difficult set of opposing offenses.

Much of that strength is contained within the division, though. Of Minnesota’s 10 games against top-nine DVOA offenses, six come against their NFC North counterparts.

Additionally, Minnesota benefits from a disproportionately harder home schedule. Both Buffalo and Indy come to Minneapolis while the team travels to New England and San Francisco.

Should the defense maintain its prowess, I like the combination of Kevin O’Connell with (presumed) improved quarterback play.

It leads me to predict the Vikings own greater Super Bowl win equity than their 2% share suggests.

Indianapolis Colts (+6600)

The Colts became the first NFL team ever to win seven of its first nine games and miss the playoffs last year.

If you start with the assumption Daniel Jones looks no different, a case for optimism exists around this team.

After their bye, Indianapolis lost four of seven by six or less, including three by four or less. Heck, the Colts nearly beat the Seahawks as 13.5-point dogs with Phillip Rivers!

Additional Analysis: Colts Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction

On paper, the offense should look worse. Jones suffered a major injury and no longer has Michael Pittman Jr. Alec Pierce is also dealing with an injury.

But I remain optimistic about Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line. Last year, Taylor paced the OPOY race before Jones went down behind a line seventh in run-block win rate.

Defensively, the team gets a full season with Sauce Gardner. They also project to face the league’s second-easiest set of opposing offenses by 2025 DVOA rankings.

While games against Tennessee, Houston and Cleveland drive down that projection, it’s still a fairly easy schedule.

By opponent win totals, the Colts project to face the league’s 11th-easiest schedule. A lot has to go right for it to work, but the Colts offer interest based on price alone.