Texans vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 27, 2022, 10:28 AM
  • The Dolphins (7-3) are -12.5 point favorites vs the Texans (1-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Houston Texans (1-8) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (7-3) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami Gardens.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Texans vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texans+13.5 -11047 -110+500
Dolphins -13.5 -11047 -110-700

Texans vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 12 game with 77.0% confidence.

Texans vs Dolphins Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread this Week 12 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texans and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Nico Collins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+7.30 Units / 122% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.05 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have scored last in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 60% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 4-5 (-1.5 Units / -13.51% ROI).

  • Texans are 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -54% ROI
  • Texans are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.65 Units / -23.98% ROI
  • Texans are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 5-5 (-0.55 Units / -4.91% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 28.35% ROI
  • Dolphins are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Dolphins are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Texans are winless (0-4-1) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .540.

The Texans are 1-17-1 (.053) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Texans are 2-18-1 (.095) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .416.

The Texans are winless (0-6-1) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Dolphins are undefeated (6-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .634.

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) vs top 10 run offenses this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .437.

The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 59.6% of pass attempts since Week 7 — best in NFL. Texans have allowed successful plays on 54.3% of pass attempts since Week 7 — third-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have averaged 404 yards from scrimmage per game (4,040 YFS / 10 G) this season — third-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed an average of 401.6 yards from scrimmage per game (4,016/10) this season — third-worst in NFL.

Dolphins WRs have gained 2,373 yards on 165 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 15.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 28.7% of pass attempts since Week 7 — fifth-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 30.0% of passing plays since Week 7 — third-best in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 10% of plays in the 1st half in Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Texans ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have gone three and out on 5% of their drives in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Dolphins have averaged 8.6 yards per attempt (3,059 yards/355 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.1.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

Offenses facing the Texans have thrown the ball 44% of the time (292 Pass Attempts/664 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Texans defense has allowed an average of 26.8 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.7.

The Texans defense has allowed 184.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 127.8.

The Texans defense has allowed 179.8 rushing yards per game (1,798/10) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 121.4.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense have forced three and outs on 4% of opponent drives since Week 8 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Dolphins defense have forced three and outs on 17% of opponent drives this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.