- The Patriots are -3 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 41 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPN+ | ESPD
The Houston Texans visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots on Jan. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.
The Patriots are betting favorites in this AFC Divisonal Playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-118).
The Texans vs. Patriots Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.
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Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Texans vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 58.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Texans vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
- Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Woody Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Texans
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | +3000 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | +750 |
| Nick Chubb (HOU) | +3500 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (Hou) | +10000 |
| Jawhar Jordan (HOU) | +3500 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Demario Douglas (NE) | 14.5 -115 | 14.5 -115 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 51.5 -118 | 51.5 -115 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 39.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 32.5 -115 | 32.5 -115 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 37.5 -110 | 37.5 -118 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 35.5 -118 | 35.5 -110 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 39.5 -110 | 39.5 -118 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 60.5 -118 | 60.5 -110 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -118 |
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.13 Units / 19% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+16.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 10-8 (+1.15 Units / 5.79% ROI).
- Texans are 13-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.4 Units / 22.25% ROI
- Texans are 6-11 when betting the Over for -6.1 Units / -30.81% ROI
- Texans are 11-6 when betting the Under for +4.4 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 13-5 (+7.5 Units / 38.17% ROI).
- Patriots are 15-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.15 Units / 27.6% ROI
- Patriots are 11-7 when betting the Over for +3.3 Units / 16.67% ROI
- Patriots are 7-11 when betting the Under for -5.1 Units / -25.76% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Texans have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 11 rushing TDs this season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Texans have been successful on 59.1% of plays they have run against a light rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed a success rate of 57.1% with a light rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
The Texans have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 11 rushing TDs this season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Texans have been successful on 59.1% of plays they have run against a light rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed a success rate of 57.1% with a light rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Texans have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 11 rushing TDs this season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Texans have been successful on 59.1% of plays they have run against a light rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed a success rate of 57.1% with a light rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 62% of plays in the 1st half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Texans have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 11 rushing TDs this season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Texans have been successful on 59.1% of plays they have run against a light rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed a success rate of 57.1% with a light rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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