Texans vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – AFC Wild Card Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Jan 06, 2026, 12:04 PM

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Pittsburgh Steelers fans wave their Terrible Towels during the first half of an NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Texans are -3.5 point favorites vs the Steelers
Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
Watch this game on ABC | ESPN | ESPD | ESPN2

The Houston Texans visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Jan. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Texans are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).

The Texans vs. Steelers Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Texans vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this playoff game with 61.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Steelers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 60.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 36% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 54% ROI)
Aaron Rodgers has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 37% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 70% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Steelers vs Texans

Player Name	1st TD Odds
C.J. Stroud (HOU)	+2500
Woody Marks (HOU)	+650
Nick Chubb (HOU)	+2200
Dare Ogunbowale (Hou)	+8000
Nico Collins (HOU)	+650

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Texans

Player Name	Over	Under
Jaylen Warren (PIT)	10.5 -118	10.5 -110
DK Metcalf (PIT)	49.5 -115	49.5 -115
Woody Marks (HOU)	9.5 -118	9.5 -110
Jayden Higgins (HOU)	30.5 -110	30.5 -118
Christian Kirk (HOU)	17.5 -115	17.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Texans

Player Name	Over	Under
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)	0.5 +110	0.5 -145
Jaylen Warren (PIT)	51.5 -118	51.5 -110
Woody Marks (HOU)	55.5 -110	55.5 -118
C.J. Stroud (HOU)	9.5 -110	9.5 -120
Kenneth Gainwell (PIT)	27.5 -115	27.5 -115

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 21% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 20% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 21% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 85% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.40 Units / 69% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.60 Units / 58% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 66% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 9-8 (+0.15 Units / 0.8% ROI).

Texans are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 20.64% ROI
Texans are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -26.74% ROI
Texans are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 9-8 (+0.35 Units / 1.9% ROI).

Steelers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 18.9% ROI
Steelers are 9-7 when betting the Over for +1.3 Units / 6.95% ROI
Steelers are 7-9 when betting the Under for -2.9 Units / -15.51% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers defense allowed 21.6 yards per completion (238 yards/11 completions) in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.4.

The Steelers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 12% of plays in the 3rd quarter since Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Offenses facing the Steelers have thrown deep balls on just 8% of pass attempts (49/613) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Texans have gone three and out on 33% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 39% of rush attempts this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have averaged just 5.0 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers