Texans vs Titans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • The Titans (7-7) are -5 point favorites vs the Texans (1-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 37 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Houston Texans (1-12) visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans (7-7) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Nashville.

The Titans are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (+100).

The Texans vs. Titans Over/Under is 35 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Titans Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texans+3.5 -12035 -110+145
Titans -3.5 +10035 -110-175

Texans vs. Titans Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Titans will win this Week 16 game with 78.0% confidence.

Texans vs Titans Spread Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Titans will cover the spread this Week 16 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texans and Titans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Phillip Dorsett has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Titans Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Titans players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Tannehill has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Robert Woods has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Robert Woods has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Titans vs Texans

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Derrick Henry +290
Malik Willis +800
Brandin Cooks +1100
Royce Freeman +1100
Treylon Burks +1200

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Titans vs Texans

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Derrick Henry -250
Malik Willis +160
Brandin Cooks +180
Royce Freeman +180
Chris Moore +230

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Titans vs Texans

Player Name Over Under
Derrick Henry 12.5 -115 12.5 -115
Jordan Akins 21.5 -120 21.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Titans vs Texans

Player Name Over Under
Derrick Henry 111.5 -120 111.5 -110
Malik Willis 34.5 -110 34.5 -120
Royce Freeman 28.5 -115 28.5 -115
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+6.30 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 6-7 (-1.65 Units / -10.71% ROI).

  • Texans are 1-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -67.14% ROI
  • Texans are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.85 Units / -18.45% ROI
  • Texans are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / ROI

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans have gone 8-5 (+2.4 Units / 15.53% ROI).

  • Titans are 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -4.64% ROI
  • Titans are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
  • Titans are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Texans are 1-19-1 (.048) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Texans are 2-13-1 (.125) at home since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .528.

The Texans are winless (0-9-1) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2020 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Texans are winless (0-5-1) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Titans are winless (0-3) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .393.

The Titans are winless (0-2) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .391.

The Titans are 2-6 (.250) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .439.

The Titans are winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .403.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Titans RBs have averaged 2.1 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry this season — second-worst in NFL.

Titans RBs have averaged 2.1 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Titans have rushed the ball on 47.7% of plays from scrimmage this season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of just 29.1% this season — second-worst in NFL. The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 31.7% this season — best in NFL.

Texans RBs have averaged just 6.3 yards after the catch this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed just 6.5 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — third-best in NFL.

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of just 31.0% in the second half this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 29.7% in the second half this season — second-best in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of plays in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have converted first downs on just 443 of 1,828 plays (24%) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Titans have run 21% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Titans have converted first downs on just 43 of 210 plays (20%) in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Titans have converted first downs on just 26 of 154 plays (17%) in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Titans have run 35% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Texans defense has allowed 902 yards after contact this season — most in NFL.

The Texans defense has allowed 1,969 yards after contact since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Offenses facing the Texans have thrown the ball 48% of the time (980 Pass Attempts/2,042 plays) since the 2021 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Texans defense has allowed 2,356 rushing yards this season — most in NFL.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Titans defense has allowed 301.6 receiving yards per game (4,223/14) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 237.2.

Offenses facing the Titans have thrown the ball 61% of the time (1,194 Pass Attempts/1,955 plays) since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Titans defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 7 times since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.