- The Texans are a 3-point home favorite against the Dolphins.
- The Dolphins have lost 11 straight road games against teams with a winning record.
- My Texans vs. Dolphins prediction is for Houston to cover the spread.
Looking to get back to .500 for the first time since Week 2, the Dolphins travel to Houston for a meeting with the Texans.
Miami came from behind to win in overtime against the Jets in Week 14. That gives the Dolphins four wins in their last five games, and they are two games out of a playoff spot.
Houston enjoyed a bye in Week 14 amidst an inconsistent run of results. Prior to a narrow win over the Jaguars, Houston dropped three games in their previous four contests.
Bet on Texans vs. Dolphins and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 15 Odds: Texans vs. Dolphins
Texans vs. Dolphins Prediction
Based on Miami’s road struggles against good teams and Houston’s strong home record behind C.J. Stroud, my Texans vs. Dolphins prediction is the Texans Spread (-3, -105).
The time has come to sell the Miami offense against one of the league’s best defenses.
A lot will be made of the fact Miami ranks third in EPA per play and first in offensive success rate since Week 8.
However, it’s wise to consider the defensive quality of the defenses they’ve faced over that span.
In terms of defensive EPA per play, Miami has played defenses with the following season-long rankings: 22nd, 10th, 29th, 25th, 28th, 8th and 20th.
Guess which games within that sample Miami fell short. If you picked the two against teams with above-average defenses, you’d be correct.
Houston ranks second in defensive DVOA, fourth in defensive EPA per play and first in defensive success rate.
It will mark the first time all season the Dolphins play a team fifth or better in all three of those categories, and it comes against a defense playing on extended rest.
Houston is also well-equipped to stop Miami’s offensive focus.
Miami lives and dies by the pass. This season, Mike McDaniel’s side is 2-6 SU when passing for under 250 yards. Otherwise, they’re 4-1 SU.
Houston ranks third in pass defense DVOA and leads the league in defensive dropback success rate.
This season, only two teams have passed for more than 250 yards against Houston’s defense.
Houston also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2003, favorites between -3.5 and -1 in games 7-17 are 72% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The underdog is on a one-game winning streak
- The underdog’s win percentage falls between 37% and 63%
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 54% and 81%
Just over the last three seasons, those teams are 14-1 ATS. Take the Texans at -3 or better in Week 15.
Betting Texans vs. Dolphins: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 53% | 63% | 58% | 49% |
| Texans | 47% | 37% | 42% | 51% |
