Titans vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:07 AM
  • The Colts (1-1) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Titans (1-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Tennessee Titans (1-2) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (1-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis.

The Colts are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Titans vs. Colts Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Titans vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Titans+3.5 -11543 -110+145
Colts -3.5 -10543 -110-175

Titans vs. Colts Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Colts will win this Week 4 game with 67.5% confidence.

Titans vs Colts Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread this Week 4 with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Titans and Colts, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Titans Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Titans players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Derrick Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Ryan Tannehill has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Geoff Swaim has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Ryan Tannehill has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Matt Ryan has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Colts vs Titans

Player Name Over Under
Michael Pittman Jr. 66.5 -115 66.5 -115
Robert Woods 46.5 -115 46.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Colts vs Titans

Player Name Over Under
Jonathan Taylor 93.5 -115 93.5 -115
Derrick Henry 71.5 -110 71.5 -115
Ryan Tannehill 12.5 -120 12.5 -110
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have scored first in 12 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans have gone 1-2 (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).

  • Titans are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • Titans are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Titans are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 1-2 (-1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI).

  • Colts are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 5.08% ROI
  • Colts are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Colts are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Titans are 2-1 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Titans are 11-1 (.917) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .728.

The Titans are 11-1 (.917) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .571.

The Titans are 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Colts were 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

The Colts are winless (0-3) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .177.

The Colts are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .672.

The Colts are 1-5 (.167) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2021 season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .361.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Colts TEs have 77 receptions in 20 games (just 3.8 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed just 4.1 receptions per game to TEs since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

The Colts have a third down conversion rate of just 30.9% against the blitz since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL. The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 28.9% when blitzing since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL.

Colts TEs have averaged just 3.1 yards after the catch this season — third-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed just 3.4 yards after catch per reception to TEs this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

The Titans have scored on 0% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed scores on 0% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — tied for best in NFL.

The Titans have gone three and out on 33.3% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Colts have forced three and outs on 33.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

Titans RBs have gained 776 yards on 92 receptions (8.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 8.4 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Titans have run 24% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Titans ran successful plays on 75% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Titans have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Titans have run 8% of their plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Colts have scored on 23% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 65% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have 204 of 377 (54%) first downs through the air since the 2021 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Colts threw the ball 33% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/99 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

39% of the plays run against the Titans have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Titans defense has allowed a passer rating of just 19.3 on 3rd down (25 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 88.6.

The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 18% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Titans defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 on 3rd and short (7 Pass Attempts) this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 100.5.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 13% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 17% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 3 of 118 carries (3%) since Week 17 of the 2021 Season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.