Titans vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 13

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
  • The Commanders are -5.5 point favorites vs the Titans
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Tennessee Titans (3-8-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (7-5-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover, MD.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Titans vs. Commanders Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Titans vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Titans+5.5 -11044.5 -110+200
Commanders -5.5 -11044.5 -110-250

Titans vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 51.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Titans vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Titans will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Titans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Bets Today

  • Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Mason Rudolph has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Calvin Ridley has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Mason Rudolph has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jayden Daniels has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Zach Ertz has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.35 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+14.30 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans art 2-9 (-7.85 Units / -65.69% ROI).

  • Titans are 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -27.17% ROI
  • Titans are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 13.22% ROI
  • Titans are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 7-4 (+2.65 Units / 19.85% ROI).

  • Commanders are 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.16% ROI
  • Commanders are 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Commanders are 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Titans are winless (0-6) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .528.

The Titans were 1-2 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Titans were winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Titans were 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Commanders are 6-3 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 10th-best in NFL. The Titans have turned the ball over 20 times this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Commanders were 1-10 (.091) when intercepting no passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Commanders were 3-11 (.214) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

The Commanders were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have averaged 0.23 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Titans have allowed 0.29 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 66.7% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — T-best in NFL. The Titans have allowed successful plays on 60.6% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Titans have pressured opposing QBs on 22.2% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Titans have been successful on just 31.5% of plays they have run against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 36.7% of plays with a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Titans have thrown for 2,253 passing yards in 11 games (just 204.8 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed just 189.1 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Titans ran just 3.1% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Commanders allowed their opponent to run just 8.2% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-best in NFL.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have run 33% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Titans have allowed a QB Hit on 27% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans allowed a QB hit on 29% of pass attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans have run 35% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders have run 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Commanders threw the ball 57% of the time (267 Pass Attempts/465 plays) on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Commanders have scored on 53% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 66% of plays in the red zone since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Titans defense allowed successful plays on 39% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Titans defense has allowed a passer rating of 95.3 on contested throws (127 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 66.9.

The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 106.2 with a base rush (798 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 90.0.

The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Commanders defense allowed a passer rating of 109.4 with a base rush (547 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.4.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.