Titans vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:13 AM
  • The Titans (2-2) are -1 point favorites vs the Commanders (1-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Tennessee Titans (2-2) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (1-3) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Landover.

The Titans are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -1 (-105).

The Titans vs. Commanders Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Titans vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Titans-1 -10543 -110-115
Commanders +1 -11543 -110-105

Titans vs. Commanders Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Titans will win this Week 5 game with 51.7% confidence.

Titans vs Commanders Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread this Week 5 with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Titans and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Titans Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Titans players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Tannehill has hit the Completions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ryan Tannehill has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ryan Tannehill has hit the Passing Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Derrick Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Geoff Swaim has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Terry McLaurin has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Terry McLaurin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Commanders vs Titans

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Derrick Henry +400
    Antonio Gibson +750
    Terry McLaurin +1000
    Robert Woods +1100
    Curtis Samuel +1200

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Commanders vs Titans

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Derrick Henry -200
    Antonio Gibson +115
    Terry McLaurin +150
    Robert Woods +180
    Curtis Samuel +180

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Commanders vs Titans

    Player Name Over Under
    Robert Woods 52.5 -115 52.5 -115
    Derrick Henry 11.5 -120 11.5 -110
    Terry McLaurin 58.5 -110 58.5 -115
    Curtis Samuel 44.5 -110 44.5 -115
    Austin Hooper 14.5 -115 14.5 -110

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Commanders vs Titans

    Player Name Over Under
    Ryan Tannehill 12.5 -110 12.5 -120
    Carson Wentz 11.5 -110 11.5 -120
    Antonio Gibson 37.5 -115 37.5 -115
    Derrick Henry 81.5 -115 81.5 -115
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans have gone 2-2 (-0.25 Units / -5.62% ROI).

    • Titans are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -10.19% ROI
    • Titans are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Titans are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

    Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

    • Commanders are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -45.16% ROI
    • Commanders are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Commanders are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

    Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

    The Titans are 5-3 (.625) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2021 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 255.5 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

    The Titans are 8-2 (.800) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for seventh-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 12 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.

    The Titans are winless (0-2) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

    The Titans are 2-1 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .282.

    Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

    The Commanders are 2-8 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .635.

    The Commanders are 2-12 (.143) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .425.

    The Commanders are 5-12 (.294) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .482.

    The Commanders are 6-5 (.545) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .408.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

    Commanders RBs have averaged just 5.2 yards after the catch this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed just 4.1 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — best in NFL.

    Commanders WRs have 7 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for second-most in NFL. The Titans have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for most in NFL.

    The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of 54.5% against the blitz this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 57.1% when blitzing this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

    Titans RBs have gained 200 yards on 17 receptions (11.8 YPR) this season — second-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 9.5 Yards Per Reception to RBs this season — third-worst in NFL.

    The Titans have a third down conversion rate of just 25.0% in the fourth quarter this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 16.7% in the 4th quarter this season — third-best in NFL.

    Titans RBs have 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed an average of 26 PPG this season — third-worst in NFL.

    Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Titans are averaging 24.0 drives per TD in the 2nd half this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

    The Titans have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

    The Titans have not recorded a TD in 12 drives in close and late situations this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.9.

    The Titans have not recorded a TD in 12 drives in the 4th quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.1.

    Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Commanders have run 17% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Commanders have run successful plays on 23% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Commanders have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Commanders have scored on 22% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

    Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Titans defense allowed successful plays on 13% of rush attempts in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Titans defense allowed at least 5 yards on 18% of first down plays in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Titans defense has allowed 26.8 yards per dropback (375 yards/14 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 20+ yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12.3.

    The Titans defense missed 9 tackles in Week 4 — most in NFL.

    Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Commanders defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 50% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

    The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 15% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 4 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.