Tom Brady’s Return Keeps Buccaneers in Super Bowl Hunt

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half of an NFL divisional round playoff football game Jan. 23, 2022, in Tampa, Fla.
(AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)
Colton Pool @CPoolReporter Jul 13, 2022, 6:12 PM

On a day usually reserved for college basketball and NCAA Tournament odds, NFL news nonetheless found its way in the spotlight.

Tom Brady, widely regarded as one of the best players ever, announced he was unretiring after just over a month and returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. This instantly changed their Super Bowl betting odds.

Though Brady is back, the outcome of Tampa Bay’s season is far from clear.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl odds

The Buccaneers are tied for the second-best odds to win Super Bowl 57 at +800. The Bills lead the way at +700, while the Chiefs are next at +800.

The Bucs have the leading odds to win the NFC at +375 and are favorites to win the NFC South at -225.

Before the news of Brady returning, the Buccaneers were +2500 to win the Super Bowl and +1100 to win the NFC.

Tom Brady MVP Odds

Brady has the fourth-best NFL odds to win his fourth MVP award at +900.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Bills quarterback Josh Allen are all tied for the top odds at +700. 

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and newly-acquired Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson are tied for fifth at +1200.

Tom Brady Stats

Even at 44 years of age, Brady compiled one of the best seasons of his career in 2021. He helped Tampa Bay advance to the NFC Divisional Round and nearly orchestrated a historic comeback against the Rams, the eventual Super Bowl winners.

Brady, a seven-time Super Bowl winner, led the league in passing attempts (719), completions (485), yards (5,316), and touchdowns (43) during the regular season. He’s the third quarterback to do so since 1991.

Brady broke Drew Brees’ records for completions in a single season and career (7,263) and topped his career passing yards record (84,520). He owns the career record for touchdowns (624) as well.

Beyond that, Brady was absurdly effective for his age. 

He was ranked No. 1 by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric, ahead of Rodgers, the 2021 MVP. Brady was graded the second-highest QB by Pro Football Focus, behind Burrow, among those who took 50% of the most snaps.

And even though arm strength was never his best attribute to begin with, Brady was sixth among QBs on passes of 20 yards or more downfield, according to PFF. After all this time, he still can attack various areas of the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Agents

Who the Bucs retain, add and lose in free agency and do in the NFL Draft is the true question regarding Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds.

Mere hours after Brady announced his return Sunday on Twitter, ESPN reported the Buccaneers were re-signing former Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen. However, the Bengals added Bucs guard Alex Cappa, who PFF graded tied for 20th at his position a season ago.

Last week, the Bucs placed the franchise tag on star receiver Chris Godwin. The go-to receiver for Brady ranked 11th in DYAR last season. Along with Mike Evans, who was fourth in that category, Brady will once again play with impressive weapons who bring diverse skill sets.

Rob Gronkowski, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Leonard Fournette, Carlton Davis and Richard Sherman are all among Tampa Bay’s free agents, however. And according to Spotrac, the Bucs are in the bottom third of the NFL with minus-$3 million in cap space.

They have room to work with, especially depending on how much money these players are willing to forgo to continue playing with Brady.

Who returns, though, may be the true indicator of the Bucs’ potential.

NFL Draft Betting at BetMGM

When it come to the best online sports betting, you can view updated NFL Draft odds at the BetMGM sportsbook. You can bet on draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, first position selected by a team, over/under draft position for a player, and more.

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About the Author

Colton Pool

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Colton Pool is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM living in Bozeman, Montana, focusing on the NFL and NBA. Previously, he covered Montana State football at the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and worked at newspapers in his home state of North Dakota. He graduated from North Dakota State in 2015.

Colton Pool is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM living in Bozeman, Montana, focusing on the NFL and NBA. Previously, he covered Montana State football at the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and worked at newspapers in his home state of North Dakota. He graduated from North Dakota State in 2015.