Each year, an NFL offense tends to come out of nowhere and finish near the top of the rankings.
In 2025, the Colts made a sizable jump. Daniel Jones led an offense that ultimately ranked fifth in offensive DVOA vs. 20th the prior year.
Washington made a similar leap in 2024 after drafting Jayden Daniels. From 2023 to 2024, the Commanders jumped from 26th to sixth in offensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
Which offenses could make a similar jump this year? Let’s dive into three potential candidates based on NFL odds from BetMGM.
Top NFL Offenses Primed for Positive Regression in 2026
Atlanta Falcons (20th in 2025 Offensive DVOA)
The quarterback conundrum for Kevin Stefanski presents the biggest challenge evaluating Atlanta. Outside the position, Atlanta possesses a lot of talent.
Headlined by Bijan Robinson, the rushing attack finished ninth in DVOA last year. It’s a slight dip from 2024 (5th), but it coincided with departures and injuries along the offensive line.
Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees inherit one of the league’s best offensive lines in my estimation. Over the last two years, Atlanta ranked 10th or better in PFF’s run-blocking grades.
Continued success by the Falcons ground game could take emphasis off either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.
Stefanski showed prior success establishing the run. From 2019 to 2022, Stefanski’s rushing attacks never ranked outside the top-12 in rushing yards per attempt.
Los Angeles Chargers (21st in 2025 Offensive DVOA)
Mike McDaniel previously coordinated a top offense two years on the bounce. In 2022 and 2023, Miami ranked sixth and third, respectively, in DVOA.
The Chargers offense dropped from 12th in 2024 to 21st in 2025. Neither Joe Alt nor Rashawn Slater managed to stay on the field much as the offensive line struggled.
Presuming both return to full health, a strong ceiling case exists for the Chargers. Both guard positions remain a question, but it’s a quietly strong skill group.
Omarian Hampton gets his first full season behind two elite tackles. Keaton Mitchell offers versatility behind him. The pass catchers, headlined by McConkey, offer a high floor.
From Week 6-17, the Chargers ranked seventh in EPA per play excluding turnovers. If they sustain that record over a season, it’s a unit with a high ceiling.
Washington Commanders (23rd in 2025 Offensive DVOA)
This one should surprise exactly no one. Year over year, the offense fell from sixth to 23rd as Jayden Daniels saw the field less often with multiple injuries.
None of the ailments offer sizable concern. It should lead to a bounce-back campaign, especially after some strong offseason additions.
Stefon Diggs signed a one-year deal to operate behind Terry McLaurin. Chig Okonkwo offers reliability at tight end after Zach Ertz suffered an injury and departed the team.
Last year, we saw glimpses of old Washington under Daniels. He played full games in Weeks 1, 2, 5 and 6.
The former pair saw Washington finish as the third-best rushing attack by EPA per play (excluding turnovers). The latter pair saw them finish as a top-five passing EPA team.
If new offensive coordinator David Blough can put it all together, Washington could return to 2024 levels of success.
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