Buy or Sell: Is There Value Betting Buccaneers To Win NFC South?

min read
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half of an NFL divisional round playoff football game Jan. 23, 2022, in Tampa, Fla.
(AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM May 05, 2022, 1:10 PM

Tom Brady is back in Tampa Bay and NFL odds have the Buccaneers the heaviest favorite to win their division for the upcoming NFL season.

With little competition throughout the rest of the division, here is a look at the steep price for the Super Bowl LV Champions to win the NFC South and whether or not it is worth a play with NFL betting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2021 Record: 13-4)

Biggest Addition: Russell Gage

Gage is the latest to join the plethora of weapons at Brady’s disposal and if Rob Gronkowski ends up returning, Gage will be the most dangerous fourth option in the NFL.

The 26-year-old has hauled in 138 receptions for 1,556 yards and eight touchdowns in 30 games across the last two seasons. He will help replace some of the pass-catchers they have lost in the offseason at the wide receiver position.

Biggest Loss: Antonio Brown

Speaking of what they lost, it feels shocking that the Bucs were able to keep Antonio Brown from his typical antics for a short time in Tampa, however, his unique way of dealing with situations was on full display when the seven-time Pro Bowler walked off the field in Week 16 and was subsequently released. It leaves a ton of production out of the slot, somewhere the Buccaneers hope Gage can fill in.

X-Factor: Leonard Fournette

Fournette seems like a bit too big of a name to be deemed an X-factor here, but this team’s success seems to ride on his ability. The passing offense will certainly be top-5 in the NFL, but a respected rushing attack will open things up for Brady’s patented play-action and for both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to utilize the middle of the field.

NFC South Futures Market

Line Movement: +140 to -300
Amount of tickets: 37.1%
Amount of handle: 94.1%

Buccaneers Outlook

Part of this steep price has to do with the sheer talent the Buccaneers have on both sides of the football, but plenty of this number has to do with the lack of competition within the NFC South.

There isn’t another franchise quarterback among the other three teams, while the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are still mulling their Week 1 starter. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Tampa Bay go 6-0 in the division and that ought to be enough for them to come out on top.

But in terms of value, this number just isn’t good enough.

There is simply too much unpredictability across 18 weeks of an NFL season to be laying a price like this. A few injuries or even just one for a few weeks to Brady could cost bettors a hefty bet size here and that’s a very real possibility for a man who will be turning 45 in August. The value on the Bucs feels long gone with this much juice on the board.

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BetMGM Staff

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.