Vikings vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 02, 2022, 1:29 PM
  • The Vikings (6-1) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Commanders (4-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Minnesota Vikings (6-1) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (4-4) on Nov. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Landover.

The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Vikings vs. Commanders Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Vikings vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 9

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vikings-3.5 -11043.5 -110-175
Commanders +3.5 -11043.5 -110+145

Vikings vs. Commanders Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 9 game with 65.8% confidence.

Vikings vs Commanders Spread Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 9 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Vikings and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Irv Smith has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games (+4.45 Units / 102% ROI)
  • Jalen Reagor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.35 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Antonio Gibson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.15 Units / 91% ROI)
  • J.D. McKissic has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Carson Wentz has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 4Q Spread in their last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 98% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 54% ROI)

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 3-4 (-1.5 Units / -19.23% ROI).

  • Vikings are 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 34.13% ROI
  • Vikings are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
  • Vikings are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.49% ROI).

  • Commanders are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 9.44% ROI
  • Commanders are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Commanders are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Vikings are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

The Vikings are undefeated (3-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .427.

The Vikings are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .556.

The Vikings are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .594.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Commanders are undefeated (4-0) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .594.

The Commanders are 2-12 (.143) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

The Commanders are winless (0-5) when allowing 300 or more passing yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .451.

The Commanders are 4-2 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .514.

Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have gone three and out on 6.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — fourth-best in NFL. Vikings have forced three and outs on 4.2% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 74.7% of pass attempts this season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 7.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — worst in NFL.

The Commanders have an average drive start position from the 22.8 yard line this season — third-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed an average drive start position from the 22.8 yard line this season — third-best in NFL.

The Vikings have run successful plays on just 7.7% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — worst in NFL. The Commanders have pressured opposing QBs on 29.8% of passing plays this season — second-best in NFL.

The Vikings have a third down conversion rate of just 32.6% in the second half this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 27.9% in the second half this season — third-best in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Vikings have an average drive start position from the 40.0 yard line in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24.9.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 37% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Vikings have started 13 drives inside opposing territory this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 8% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Commanders have run 26% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 23% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 31% of plays in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Commanders are averaging 13.6 drives per TD in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Vikings defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 82% (18 completions/22 attempts) in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Vikings defense has allowed first downs on 48% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Vikings defense tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 468 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 201.4 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 160.4.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Commanders defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 9 of 248 attempts (4%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2%.

The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 92.7 when they have pressured the QB (156 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 56.6.

The Commanders defense has hit opposing QBs on 26% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.