Vikings vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2022, 9:18 AM
  • The Vikings (4-1) are -3 point favorites vs the Dolphins (3-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Minnesota Vikings (4-1) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (3-2) on Oct. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens.

The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Vikings vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Dolphins vs Vikings & all NFL games with BetMGM

Vikings vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vikings-3 -11045.5 -110-165
Dolphins +3 -11045.5 -110+140

Vikings vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 6 game with 65.8% confidence.

Vikings vs Dolphins Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 6 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Vikings and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jalen Reagor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 93% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.35 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jalen Reagor has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 71% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Vikings

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Chase Edmonds +600
    Justin Jefferson +600
    Dalvin Cook +650
    Raheem Mostert +700
    Tyreek Hill +900

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Vikings

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Justin Jefferson -150
    Chase Edmonds -140
    Dalvin Cook -125
    Raheem Mostert +105
    Adam Thielen +120

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Vikings

    Player Name Over Under
    Adam Thielen 53.5 -115 53.5 -115
    Tyreek Hill 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
    Mike Gesicki 19.5 -105 19.5 -125
    Irv Smith Jr. 31.5 -115 31.5 -115
    Jaylen Waddle 49.5 -115 49.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Vikings

    Player Name Over Under
    Dalvin Cook 76.5 -110 76.5 -120
    Raheem Mostert 59.5 -110 59.5 -120
    Kirk Cousins 2.5 -125 2.5 -105
    Alexander Mattison 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
    Skylar Thompson 12.5 -110 12.5 -120
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+12.20 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 1-4 (-3.5 Units / -62.5% ROI).

    • Vikings are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 27.4% ROI
    • Vikings are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
    • Vikings are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / ROI

    Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.29% ROI).

    • Dolphins are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 24.8% ROI
    • Dolphins are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
    • Dolphins are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

    Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

    The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .551.

    The Vikings are 3-1 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

    The Vikings are 4-2 (.667) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.

    The Vikings are 2-5 (.286) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .415.

    Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

    The Dolphins were 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

    The Dolphins are 3-1 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

    The Dolphins were 4-2 (.667) vs top 10 defenses last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .447.

    The Dolphins are 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins

    The Dolphins have run successful plays on 47.9% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. Vikings have allowed successful plays on 52.4% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 20.2 yard line this season — worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed an average drive start position from the 23.6 yard line this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

    The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 25.0 yard line since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed an average drive start position from the 24.9 yard line since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

    The Vikings ran successful plays on 59.5% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL. Dolphins allowed successful plays on 52.4% of pass attempts in Week 3 — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

    The Vikings have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 77.0% of pass attempts this season — second-highest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.4 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — worst in NFL.

    The Vikings are averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.0 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

    Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Vikings have not recorded a TD in 12 drives in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

    The Vikings have an average drive start position from the 39.2 yard line in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24.8.

    The Vikings had a third down conversion rate of 80% in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

    The Vikings converted first downs on just 30 of 57 plays (53%) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

    Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Dolphins ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 14.8 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.1.

    The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 12.3 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.2.

    Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Vikings defense allowed 200.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 160.3.

    The Vikings defense tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 468 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

    The Vikings defense has allowed first downs on 64% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

    The Vikings defense has allowed first downs on 50% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

    Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

    The Dolphins defense have forced three and outs on 6% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

    The Dolphins defense has pressured opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

    The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.