- The Vikings are currently a 3-point home favorite against the Falcons.
- The Vikings have won each of their last eight September games against the Falcons.
- My lookahead Vikings vs Falcons prediction is for Minnesota to cover the spread.
Week 2’s Sunday Night Football matchup pits the Minnesota Vikings against the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta hopes to get revenge for a brutal loss at Minnesota last year. As six-point road underdogs, the Falcons lost 42-21 thanks to a 21-0 fourth quarter for the Vikings.
For Minnesota, the game offers a slightly difficult spot. Kevin O’Connell’s side faces a road MNF game in Chicago before returning to Minnesota to play Sunday night.
Bet on Vikings vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Vikings vs. Falcons: NFL Week 2 Odds
Vikings vs. Falcons Prediction
Tuesday, September 9
Following Minnesota’s performance on MNF, my opinion of this game has shifted slightly. At the current number, my Vikings vs Falcons prediction is the Falcons Spread (+5.5, -110).
That said, I want to wait to see if this number reaches six. Accordingly, I’ll wait out the betting market before making a final prediction for Sunday Night Football.
Injuries will also play a big role in my decision here.
Drake London could miss time for Atlanta while Minnesota is dealing with a bunch of injuries. Most notably: Christian Darrisaw and Harrison Smith.
I thought Michael Penix Jr. looked outstanding against Tampa Bay. Much of the blame for Atlanta’s loss against Tampa should be assigned elsewhere.
The defense surrendered only one red zone trip against the Bucs. Additionally, they enter Sunday’s game with a rest advantage over Minnesota.
The Vikings likely win the game, but I question if it comes by margin on short rest.
Thursday, September 4
Based on the Vikings’ matchup edges and Michael Penix’s lack of experience against good defenses, my lookahead Vikings vs Falcons prediction is the Vikings Spread (-4.5, -110).
Initially, my interest here sided with Atlanta. After all, it’s a brutal spot for the Vikings on the heels of a road Monday night spot.
History reinforces the notion. Since 2005, road teams with a spread of +2.5 to +6.5 and a rest edge of +1 are 53-22-2 ATS (70.7%), assuming the favorite played on the road the previous week.
What’s interesting, though, is that those underdogs are 1-5 ATS in Week 2. It could just be a coincidence, but I’ll take the data point and adjust the system to start in Week 3.
From a matchup standpoint, I worry about Atlanta. The offensive line took a big hit with Kaleb McGary’s injury, leaving a third-string tackle to protect Penix’s blind side.
If that weren’t concerning enough, he now faces a blitz-heavy Vikings defense.
Plus, it’s a possible sell-high spot on the Falcons. To date, Penix has yet to feature against a legitimately good defense.
Last year, he started three games. All came against bottom-five defenses by DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Time will tell whether the Bucs fit that mold in Week 1. But if my assumptions about Falcons vs Bucs are correct, it could create a sell-high spot on Atlanta.
That said, laying this big a number in J.J. McCarthy’s second start is slightly worrisome. Based on those factors, it’s currently the Vikings or pass on Sunday night.
Betting Vikings vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 56% | 69% | 55% | 61% |
| Vikings | 44% | 31% | 45% | 39% |
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