NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Below, bettors can find my NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread based on NFL odds.

The good news for Week 2: we know more than we did a week ago. The bad news? Bettors still have a lot to learn about these teams.

Accordingly, some of these predictions carry more confidence than others. I’ll outline that confidence level with each pick.

NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 2

Thursday Night Football: Bills (-4.5) vs Lions

I’m quite confident the Bills offense will score at will against the Lions defense, as detailed in my NFL Week 2 Picks.

Under normal circumstances, I’d predict the Lions score on a bad Buffalo defense, too. My only concern is the short turnaround from an overtime game.

The line steamed from Bills -3.5 at open on Sunday to Bills -4.5 as of this writing. Part of me thinks the line has gone too far, especially knowing how bad the Buffalo defense looked.

While I’m concerned about Detroit’s rest spot, I’ll take the points with a good offense.

Prediction: Lions +4.5

Confidence Level: 4

Texans (-3) vs Bengals

I liked how Houston’s offense looked in Week 1 against the Bills. They could have easily won that game, especially knowing the Texans edged Buffalo 5-3 in red zone chances.

Cincinnati should see some offensive regression in this game. Zac Taylor’s squad proved very turnover-reliant to win against the Bucs. Fun fact: Cincy didn’t force a punt in Week 1.

Houston’s defense matches up very well with Cincy’s offense. I’d like Houston a lot more at -2 instead of -3, but I like the bounceback spot for a good defense.

Prediction: Texans -3

Confidence: 5

Buccaneers (-8.5) vs Browns

For many years now, the Browns defense simply hasn’t traveled well. The offense failed to move the ball consistently against Jacksonville until the score was 21-0.

Still, 82% of bets are on Tampa Bay to cover in Week 2 as of Wednesday afternoon. If you’re a trends bettor, the spot screams Cleveland.

Since 2003, road dogs between +6 and +9 are 37-19 ATS off a loss by 20-24 points. I don’t think there’s a world where the Browns win outright, but crazier things have happened.

I’ll fade the historical trends and lay an uncomfortable number.

Prediction: Buccaneers -8.5

Confidence: 2

Titans vs Eagles (-7)

There’s a world where the Titans get shut out in this game. Last year, Philadelphia faced a comparable Raiders offense and didn’t allow points.

Right now, the Eagles are the second-most-bet side to cover at 92% of bets. There’s simply no world in which I can trust the Eagles at that number given the offensive woes.

Tennessee could theoretically cause problems for Sean Mannion’s offense. Jeffrey Simmons gets a weakened Eagles interior and could prevent Saquon Barkley from dominating.

It’s uncomfortable, but I’ll take the points as the Eagles (potentially) look ahead to a Week 3 game in Chicago.

Prediction: Titans +7

Confidence: 3

Jets vs Packers (-3.5)

Early support favored the Jets, who opened at +4.5. The matchup ultimately comes down to Green Bay’s defense against New York’s offense.

I expect the Packers to score points. Green Bay finished 1-for-4 in the red zone against Minnesota. By contrast, the Jets defense is a significantly easier test.

In Week 1, only five defenses posted a better defensive success rate than Green Bay. Minnesota producing explosives led to an 18th-place rating in EPA per play.

It leads me to predict a classic buy-low, sell-high spot and that the Packers cover.

Prediction: Packers -3.5

Confidence: 5

Falcons vs Panthers (-2.5)

Carolina has moved a full three points from the opening number. I can make the argument the line has moved too far.

Still, I believe Carolina’s offense is the best unit on the field. Late last year, we saw the Panthers move the ball consistently against Geoff Ulbrich’s defense.

Atlanta lacks competent pass rushers to exploit Carolina’s offensive line injuries. At the same time, I’m not sure the Panthers defense has an answer for Bijan Robison.

If this gets to Falcons +3, confidence goes up higher. It’s still Atlanta or nothing at this point, with lower confidence at +2.5.

Prediction: Falcons +2.5

Confidence: 5

Ravens (-8.5) vs Saints

I don’t like this spot for the Saints one bit. They’re on a back-to-back road spot off an overtime game against a markedly better defense.

New Orleans threw their way back into the game against Detroit after falling behind 21-0. It won’t happen against this corner group.

Baltimore ranked second in rush offense DVOA in Week 1. New Orleans ranked 30th on defense.

Prediction: Ravens -8.5

Confidence: 6

Patriots (-5) vs Steelers

A.J. Brown is out at least four games. Pittsburgh may be forced to operate without Joey Porter Jr., who is “injured,” aka seeking a new contract.

My issue is that I’m not sure how the Patriots move the ball. When these teams played last year, they ran the ball very efficiently. But the Steelers run defense is better with Derrick Harmon.

No Brown leaves minimal weapons to exploit the Pittsburgh secondary. It seems like a classic ugly Steelers game where you’re somehow left wondering how on Earth they covered.

Prediction: Steelers +5

Confidence: 5

Bears (-4.5) vs Vikings

This one is rather easy for me. No team looked better than the Bears in Week 1. Minnesota looked troublesome at home, but they now get (maybe) the worst defense in the league.

Bryce Young looked like the second coming of Joe Montana against Chicago. In a game where the Panthers lost by 22, they equaled the Bears’ red zone opportunities.

Minnesota is not going to let Chicago run the ball as effectively as they did. Additionally, I trust Kevin O’Connell to decimate this Bears defense with a halfway decent quarterback.

Prediction: Vikings +4.5

Confidence: 9

Broncos (-2.5) vs Jaguars

Matchup says Jacksonville, betting calculus says Denver. It leaves me shrugging my shoulders, especially at 2.5.

I don’t trust Jacksonville’s defense just because they kept Cleveland to 10 points. Of course, Denver struggled to move the ball against the Chiefs.

Jacksonville won 34-20 in Denver late last year. However, the offense relied entirely on explosives to make it happen. Now, the offensive line is worse than a year ago.

Denver’s short rest worries me, but I don’t think the defense looked as bad as the 31 points it allowed.

Prediction: Denver -2.5

Confidence: 3

Chargers (-6.5) vs Raiders

I’m not sure the Chargers are very good. I remain skeptical of the Raiders, who I think only looked good because they played the Dolphins.

Las Vegas failed to stay within this margin in both games against Los Angeles last year. Brock Bowers may miss a second straight game.

Maybe it’s a little insane, but I actually like Arizona’s offense better than Las Vegas’. Ashton Jeanty rushed for a boatload of yards, but it came on a low yards per attempt.

If the Chargers lose this game, it’s not impossible they start 0-6.

Prediction: Chargers -6.5

Confidence: 4

Cowboys (-4) vs Commanders

Turns out the Cowboys defense remains a major liability. That said, I’m not sure we know the true quality of the Commanders defense yet.

Dallas won 44-22 when these teams met in Dallas last year. The Cowboys scored two touchdowns over 60 yards, including a 68-yard pick-six.

Washington looked good offensively at Philadelphia. Now, the test gets so much easier based on the Cowboys’ defensive performance against the Giants.

Prediction: Commanders +4

Confidence: 6

49ers (-13.5) vs Dolphins

Literally no one is picking the Dolphins to cover. As of Wednesday afternoon, only 2% of bets are on Miami as road pups.

The number flatters San Francisco’s defense. I recognize the unit looked remarkably good against the Rams, but the travel situation had to play a role.

In Week 1, Miami ranked 16th in defensive EPA per play and defensive success rate. It’s a much more difficult test, but it comes against a team returning from Australia.

Prediction: Dolphins +13.5

Confidence: 4

Cardinals vs Seahawks (-4)

Whether Jacoby Brissett can play better at home against the Seahawks defense will decide this game.

Brissett faced Seattle on the road last year. Arizona lost 44-22 and fell behind 38-0 by halftime. Drew Lock looked serviceable in relief of Sam Darnold and gets a bad defense in Week 2.

Oh…and Seattle has a massive rest advantage over the Cardinals. The lookahead line for this game was Arizona +9 pre-Darnold injury.

Five points of movement feels too big knowing Seattle’s defensive quality.

Prediction: Seahawks -4

Confidence: 5

Sunday Night Football: Chiefs (-6.5) vs Colts

Indianapolis ran the ball really well against Baltimore in Week 1. Of course, the defense failed to show up.

I know the Chiefs looked incredible by scoring 31 points against Denver. But seven came on a short field while another seven came on a 61-yard run by Kenneth Walker.

Those are unsustainable ways of scoring statistically. Plus, I question how the Chiefs’ secondary holds up if Mansoor Delane misses Sunday’s game.

It leads me to predict the Colts – at minimum – stay within the number.

Prediction: Colts +6.5

Confidence: 7

Monday Night Football: Rams (-7) vs Giants

As far as I’m concerned, the Rams won’t suffer from the same jet lag as their NFC West rivals.

New York is a publicly supported underdog after beating the Cowboys. The Rams offer a significantly more difficult test, even without Myles Garrett.

What I like about this matchup is the Rams’ presumed ability to run the ball. In Week 1, only five offenses outpaced LA in rushing success rate.

The Giants posted horrible run defense numbers last year. Without Dexter Lawrence, I predict it will harm them against one of the league’s best rushing teams.

Prediction: Rams -7

Confidence: 6