Avalanche vs Golden Knights: Western Conference Finals Odds, Prediction

After a brief interlude of Oilers dominance, these two teams are back in the Conference Finals. Vegas and Colorado will duke it out to see which team will get its second Stanley Cup Finals appearance this decade. 

The Avalanche won the Cup in 2022, and the Golden Knights followed it up the next year with a Cup win of their own. 

With puck drop set for Wednesday night, now’s a good time to preview the series and take a look at the current odds as of May 19. 

Avalanche vs Golden Knights Western Conference Finals Odds, Prediction

Colorado Avalanche (-250)

The Avalanche have become the second Presidents’ Trophy winner in the last decade to advance to the Conference Finals, the last being the Rangers in 2024. Only nine Presidents’ Trophy winners have appeared in the Conference Finals in the 21st century. 

Although it’s ironic to say they’ve defied the odds, given that they finished with the league’s best record, recent history shows us that dominant regular-season teams don’t always become dominant playoff teams. 

That is very different for this Colorado team. 

The Avalanche reached this point in the Conference Finals after defeating the Kings in four games in the first round and the Wild in five games in the second. Across this nine-game playoff run, Colorado has a +14 goal differential, which would’ve looked a lot better if not for their barn-burner 9-6 Game 1 victory against Minnesota. 

The Avalanche’s star center, Nathan MacKinnon, is currently the odds-favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. MacKinnon has seven goals and six assists in nine games played, with a +7 plus/minus. MacKinnon is also a likely Hart winner for his performance in the regular season. 

MacKinnon’s co-star defenseman Cale Makar is tied for the lead in most playoff goals by a defenseman, with four. Makar has a pretty solid +5 plus/minus rating. 

Additionally, Colorado has gotten solid play out of their veteran goaltender Scott Wedgwood. 

Wedgewood was somewhat of a journeyman before becoming a full-time starter for the Avalanche in the last two seasons. He had a career high in minutes this year, paired with a career-best save percentage of .921 and a career-best GAA of 2.02. 

Colorado took two out of three in the season series against the Knights. They needed overtime for one of the wins, a 6-5 victory in Vegas. 

Depending on what side you come down on in the eternal “rest versus rust” argument, the Avalanche are either advantaged by not breaking a sweat in the playoffs or disadvantaged for not being challenged yet. I think it’ll benefit Colorado, which has a shorter injury report than Vegas. 

They missed defenseman Sam Malinski and forward Artturi Lehkonen in the last few games of the Wild series with upper-body injuries. But, both are expected to be in the lineup for Game 1. 

Vegas Golden Knights (+200)

Even with a strong offseason where Vegas added the most coveted free agent on the market, the Knights weren’t necessarily viewed as a top contender in the Western Conference. Their odds of winning the Cup were set at +1200, longer than those of the Stars, Oilers, and Avalanche. 

Now, after taking down Utah in the first round and Anaheim in the second round, Vegas is on the doorstep of the franchise’s third Stanley Cup appearance since entering the league in 2017. 

The Knights have appeared in the Conference Finals in four out of the nine seasons they’ve existed as a franchise. 

They’re back in this spot again, thanks in large part to the performance of that aforementioned free agent acquisition, forward Mitch Marner. Marner, who left his hometown Maple Leafs last summer, has made it to the Conference Finals for the first time in his career after appearing in the playoffs in each of his 10 years in the NHL.

Marner surpassed his previous playoff career highs with seven goals and 18 points through 11 games played. His 18 points are also a league-leading mark, three more than the next highest. 

You can say he’s benefitting from a bigger role or less toxic pressure from fans and media, but the bottom line is that Vegas is getting exactly what they paid $96 million for. 

Veteran center Jack Eichel is putting in another great playoff run. Currently, he has a playoff-leading 14 assists. They’re also getting big contributions out of forwards Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden, who have the most and second-most goals in the playoffs, respectively. 

The Knights’ performance in these playoffs is a great turnaround for a team that was in rough shape throughout the regular season. 

With eight games left before the playoffs began, the team decided to switch head coaches, firing Bruce Cassidy, who had led the team to their 2023 Stanley Cup win, and bringing in veteran coach John Tortorella. 

It’s generally not a good sign if you fire your coach a few weeks before the postseason, but you can’t argue with the results. Vegas finished the season 7-0-1 with Tortorella at the helm and has advanced to the Conference Finals. 

His presence hasn’t come without the usual Torts antics. 

Tortorella forgoed the usual postgame handshake line after the series-clinching win over the Ducks and refused to speak with reporters or allow them into the locker room. Those last two decisions led the NHL to levy heavy punishment — they fined Tortorella $100,000 and took away the Knights’ second-round pick in this year’s draft. 

If a hundred grand and a second-round pick is the price for a coach that leads you to the doorstep of a Stanley Cup Finals appearance, I think Vegas is happy with that bet. 

Western Conference Finals Prediction

I hate to go chalk, but after a season’s worth of proof, there’s no rationale for not believing in this Colorado team. 

The Knights have certainly had a strong postseason, but they’ve gotten to the Conference Finals after playing longer series and worse opponents than the Avalanche have. 

They played a Wild Card team, the Mammoth, in the first round, and even though Anaheim finished third in the Pacific Division, they’re essentially the caliber of a Wild Card team due to the strength of that division this year. 

If the first two rounds continue, expect a lot of scoring out of Vegas, but Colorado has the defense and goaltender to withstand it. 

While the Avalanche have +325 odds to finish the series in five games, I’ll give the Knights some more credit and say that it’ll go six.