- Road teams are crushing in back-to-backs.
- The Predators over has been dominant since last December.
- One trend for road favorites after a blowout loss.
NHL regular-season betting began with the NHL Global Series on Oct. 7 and won’t end until April 15, 2023, when the final 15 of 1,312 games are played.
Here’s a look at some early NHL betting trends through the first month of the season:
Back-to-Backs for Both Teams
From 2005-21, there was no money in blindly betting the puck line for the road or home team when both teams were playing the second half of a back-to-back. The home team had a marginally better ROI, though there was a negative ROI regardless if you bet the road or home team in all circumstances.
That dramatically shifted early last season and hasn’t slowed down since.
From 2005 through November 2021, road teams had an ROI of approximately -3% in more than 1,000 games when both teams were playing the second half of a back-to-back.
Since mid-November 2021, road teams are 41-14 ATS in those spots. If you bet $100 on each of those 52 road teams, you’d be up approximately $2,400, an ROI of nearly 42%%
For nearly 15 years, the Nashville Predators were one of the worst road over teams in NHL betting.
From 2006-19, only five teams had a worse ROI (-7.6%) than the visiting Predators when betting the over.
Since the 2019-20 season, no team has a better over ROI than the Predators (21.8%) as a road team. This is because of a dominant run that started in December 2021 and has continued into the 2022-23 season.
From mid-November 2019 through late December 2021, Nashville was 38-43-1 to the over. Since Dec. 29, they’re 25-6 to the over as a road team, including 4-2 this season.
Road Favorites After Blowout Loss
Here’s a trend to keep an eye on in the coming weeks:
During the 2021 and 2021-22 regular seasons, there were 365 games with a goal differential of at least four, i.e., one team lost by at least four goals. In 52 of those instances, the losing team was a road favorite in its next game.
The road favorite covered the puck line in 40 of those 52 games, a cover rate of nearly 77%.
It was the continuation – albeit at a more dominant rate – of a historical trend that goes back more than a decade. From 2009-22, road favorites went 139-77 (.644) one game after losing by at least four goals.
Through the first month of the 2022-23 season, these teams are 0-3 against the puck line. Is it the market resetting itself, or is this a small blip in a longtime profitable trend?
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